420 7th Street

Although I never did a post on 420 7th, I thought I would feature it now because it just sold and there were several people asking about it in the past.

Details: 3 bed/2.75 bath 1,655 sq ft house, 6,530 sq ft lot, "artfully restored"

Description: Retro & Hip Architectural, artfully restored. Floor-to-ceiling glass in living area reflects the smart-looking cork floors, shag carpeting, retro fixtures, angles & lines inside and a capacious yet private, garden outside. You will be shaken and stirred! The home includes 3 bedrooms, 2 & 3/4 ba (1 bdrm/ bath is in detached guest house)+den. Other features are an entertainer's kitchen with updated appliances, new landscaping , new heating, updated electrical & plumbing. Roosevelt School.

Previous Purchase: 12/21/07 - $1,452,000

Listing History: 2/8/08 - $1,845,000
Reduced -- Mar 26, 2008 $1,795,000
Reduced -- Apr 16, 2008 $1,777,000

New Listing History: 6/4/08 - $1,699,000

SOLD: 9/29/08 - $1,600,000

Thank you Scott, Westside Bubble and anon for listing history info.

Cecil Gale All Over The Place *Update1*

We last featured 2722 Washington back in July.

To refresh, here are the poll results from the original post:

$1.5 - $1.55 --- 4%
$1.45 - $1.5 --- 27%
$1.4 - $1.45 ---11%
Less than $1.4 --- 37%
Won't Sell ---18%



And here is what I said: "If the sellers here are motivated, I think this thing could sell in the mid to high $1.4s."

Previous Purchase: 3/13/07 - $1,400,000

Listing History: 7/15/08 - $1,549,000

Sold: 9/26/08 - $1,500,000

I'm surprised that they were able to get this amount of money in the sale. I think the seller certainly got a great deal (yes, that means the buyer overpaid in my opinion).

I was a little too bearish on my prediction (mid to high $1.4 range) and the majority of our readers were much too bearish (for now). While I remain very bearish on prices, there is no denying the sticky price action going on.

SHARK SIGHTING!!

Address: 1431 Stanford #2 - 90404

Details: 2 bed/2 bath condo, 1,044 sq ft, $343/month HOA

Description: Newly remodeled townhouse. Beautiful kitchen w/granite counters,tile floors, and new stove. New bathrooms with marble floors and counters. Inside laundry, new windows,new roof,copper plumbing,bamboo floors in living room. Storage and 2s/s parking. Great area in sm must see. Ez to show seller to select services.

Previous Purchase: 3/31/06 - $638,000

"Unpaid Debt" at Trustee Sale: 7/7/08 - $537,332

Purchase by "Shark" at Trustee Sale: 7/7/08 - $373,100

Listing History: 7/17/08 - $579,000
Reduced: 08/13/08 - to $569,000

Ok, so let's lay out what happened. The original owner appears to have gone through the foreclosure process. Nothing new here so far as we have shown many condo foreclosure situations on this blog already. Things then begin to get interesting when we look at what happened on July 7th at the trustee sale (auction). In just about every situation that I have looked at so far, the bank/lender which holds the first mortgage will end up "bidding" the amount of debt owed. This will make them the winner of the property which they will then put on the market with a real estate agent as an REO property. Theoretically, anyone can show up at the trustee sale and bid a higher amount; thus becoming the new owner -- but this isn't happening because the amount of debt outstanding is almost always much higher than what the property is now worth.

This case here is unique because we are seeing an investor (the "shark") obtaining the property with a bid which is materially lower than the amount of debt outstanding. So naturally, this raises questions in my head. Are noteholders so starved for capital that they are willing to allow someone to underbid the amount of debt owed simply in order to get funds as soon as possible and avoid the REO process? Was this an isolated incident or the beginning of a potential trend?

Watching the behavior of the banks is key, so we need to keep an eye on these types of situations. But coming back to our "shark", it looks like he will likely make money on this situation. Remember, you make your money when you buy, not when you sell. The bid was actually made by a small real estate corporation which is involved in real estate investing and rehabing properties which appears to be run by one gentleman. It looks like he may have done some cosmetic upgrades in the week or so between the auction and when the property came to market. He is a professional who has been doing this for years so it makes sense that he knows how to get things done quickly. The only question now is, why not reduce the price faster and get a sale? The $10K price cut is small and inefective -- a mark of an amatuer or delusional seller. We will have to keep an eye on this.

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION (and lot size) *Update 1*

We last featured 1255 24th back in August when I argued that although the house itself was nice, the location and the lot size were major issues. I also argued that because of these issues, the asking price was much too high. It looks like our seller has taken notice and is showing signs of accepting reality.

Previous Purchase: 9/28/06 - $970,000

Listing History: 8/4/08 - $2,695,000
Reduced: 09/23/08 - to $2,395,000


If we assume just north of $300/sq ft in total construction costs, we come to roughly $1.1M for construction + $970K for the land = $2.07M

Then throw in 5% sales commission and you are looking at another $120K. Finally, add in property taxes (estimated at $25K) and holding costs/cost of money (say another $150K).

Total = $2.365M

Of course the big variable here that we are estimating is the cost/sq ft of construction. If the seller here happens to be a contractor or have buddies in the building business then maybe they could have done it for less...who knows. Can anyone help out on what they think was spent here or what they think a proper $/sq ft number should be? With the current price, it looks like they are trying to allow themselves a little more negotiation room in order to break even or have a small profit (depending on what their construction costs were).

Setting a New Floor *Update 1*

We last featured 370 22nd at the beginning of this month. There was some debate as to whether it went into escrow in one day. Judging from the fact that they are still playing with the price, I don't see how this could be true.

Secondly, this reinforces the fact that lot value has likely broken below the $2M mark. Not a big deal and not a surprise but this was a benchmark that a lot of people seemed to use.




Listing History: 8/27/08 - $1,750,000
Increased: 09/05/08 - to $2,000,000
Reduced: 09/22/08 - to $1,990,000

90402 Livable Entry Level

Address: 460 Lincoln Blvd - 90402

Details: 3 bed/3 bath 2,471 sq ft house, 7,500 sq ft lot, "wonderfully updated"

Description: Wonderfully updated home in quiet location north of montana. 3 bedrooms, 3 baths plus fam room. Large bright open "hang out" cook's kitchen with stainless appliances and granite counters. Huge master suite, 2 nice fireplaces, beautiful hardwood floors, skylights, great light, french doors, gated and fenced. Oversized 2 car garage with workshop area. Large laundry room, lots of storage. Roosevelt & lincoln schools. Just a few blocks from montana and the bluffs and great santa monica beaches.

Previous Purchase: 1/13/97 - $825,000

Old Listing History: 4/14/08 - $2,395,000

New Listing History: 8/20/08 - $2,195,000

While I have not seen this house in person, it appears to be very livable. Good bed/bath numbers, good square footage, good kitchen, deck, good location -- nothing fancy here but certainly would fit the needs of your 90402 entry level family.

This seller also meets some (but not all) of the characteristics of the type of seller you want to be dealing with. Assuming they didn't refinance all their equity away, they will have a nice gain even if you bid them lower than their asking price. This should help make them more realistic -- i.e. they have the room to negotiate. Also, while they are playing the "relist" game, they have at least made an effort to get realistic and reduce the price by a good margin. The house is now at the one month mark (for the new listing), so it will be interesting to see if they are serious enough to cut the price in the next 15-30 days (assuming they don't get a bid here).

Maybe there are some major flaws that I don't know about, but I would argue that seeing this house at this level puts lot value at or below the $2M mark for 7,500 sq ft lots. While I remain bearish on prices and think a house like this will likely end up falling below the $2M mark further down the line, I think the seller is not wildly out of touch in this case so far. If it lingers on the market for more than another month without a price cut then it is a different story...

Ashland Architectural Rollback *Update 2*

We last featured 1621 Ashland just last month when we put the seller "on notice" for such a small price reduction.

We first featured this house all the way back in October 2007. Note that it was first listed in August 2007. It took more than a full year for this seller (and real estate agent) to get the picture that they needed to lower their price much further.

This was a good example to follow because it was pretty much a direct comparison as I don't recall a ton of upgrades or anything.

Original Purchase: 10/31/05 - $1,450,000

Old Listing History: 8/13/07 - $1,675,000
Price Reduced: 09/06/07 - to $1,650,000
Price Reduced: 09/20/07 - to $1,610,000
Price Reduced: 10/17/07 - to $1,585,000

New Listing History: 4/28/08 - $1,479,000
Reduced: 07/08/08 - to $1,415,000
Reduced: 08/11/08 - to $1,399,000

SOLD: 8/27/08 - $1,355,000 (6.6% rollback)

Uh Oh...Here Comes a 90405 SFR Foreclosure

We last featured 2432 21st back in February of this year when it was being marketed as a short sale.

Previous Purchase: 4/4/07 - $1,100,000

Listing History: 2/21/08 - $990,000

So what happened? Were they able to get a short sale accomplished for this 3 bed/2 bath shack (1,200 sq ft)?

no....no.... What's that? I think I hear my crystal ball calling me.

Trustee's Deed (bank buyback): 8/8/08 - $811,750 (Bank of New York Trust)

Anyone know anything else about this situation? As far as I can tell, we should be looking for the foreclosure listing to pop up at any time now.

90403 Cost of Entry *Update 1*

We last featured 1030 Chelsea back in early August.

One important thing to note about this property is that the lot size is somewhat small at 6,118 sq ft. Also, the house is being sold "as is" and certainly needs a lot of work to be brought into this century.

But of course, the big news here is that the price has now been cut $100K. This shouldn't come as much of a shock to anyone.


Previous Purchase: 1978 - Long time owner

Listing History: 7/31/08 - $1,399,000
Reduced: 9/15?/08 - $1,299,000

If I had 8 gold medals, this is how my bedroom would look...

90403 Starter Condo Rollback

Address: 1028 19th #6 - 90403

Details: 1 bed/1 bath 720 sq ft condo, $184/month HOA

Description: ::: sharp & fresh ::: rare upper unit in a vintage courtyard complex located on a lovely palm-tree lined street. This charming 1+1 has only 1 common wall, updated kitchen w stainless steel appliances, stacked w/d inside, wood flrs throughout. Flooded w light & windows overlooking the lush courtyard & fountain. Strong reserves of $100k & low hoa dues. Very well maintained building w updated electrical & copper plumbing, newer roof. Permitted street parking. Blocks to montana shops & cafes.

Previous Purchase: 6/27/06 - $549,000

Listing History: 6/10/08 - $549,000 (how cute, trying to break even...)
Reduced: 07/09/08 - to $540,000
Reduced: 07/22/08 - to $529,750
Reduced: 08/12/08 - to $519,000

I want to take the opportunity here to ask our readers the following: Are you still interested in seeing examples like this (entry level, 1 bedroom type units)? Do people want to still see condo examples at all? Should we go just townhouses and SFRs or should we keep doing condos but with some type of limitation?

I'm asking these questions because it can be difficult covering both the condo market and the SFR market simultaneously. This is something I have figured out after roughly a year of doing this blog...I also ask because it seems like whenever we feature lower end condos, people always get boisterous about wanting to focus more on SFRs. Condos also seem to be a segment of the market that the bulls have given up on. After showing many foreclosures and short sales (and the subsequent roll backs), it seems like we have busted the myth that condos will hold up. Maybe some are still delusional enough to think that the higher end townhouse market will hold up OK, but even there I think the writing is on the wall...
Call me a Michael Phelps ripoff, but I find that my blogging effort intensifies when we get some out of touch, delusional bulls on here talking about the notion that things are just fine for SFRs...When all the French were talking trash on Phelps he elevated his game.
"I welcome any comments. All they do is fire me up, and all they do for America is fire us up. Before the relay we were fired up, and that made just made us more fired up and fueled us even more to get ready to swim. I always welcome it, and I love when people say that somebody can't do something because you want to go out there and prove it that much more."

So what do people here want to focus on? I don't really want to play the arguing back and forth game, but I think it is worth taking a step back and thinking about where this blog should be focusing. In the end, it is about what the readers want, so let me know and hopefully we can focus our attention on the most relevant areas.

Marina Del Rey - A Whole Building Underwater

Address: 13700 Marina Pointe Drive #304 - 90292

Details: Building built in 2003, 2 bed/2 bath 1,153 sq ft condo, $965/month HOA, foreclosure

Description: Wonderful unit at the azzurra a full service luxury high rise building with 24 hour security, pool, spa, gym, outdoor deck, and more. Live the lifestyle. Buyer to provide pre-approval from wells fargo home mortgage. Sold as-is without any warranties expressed or implied. Showings must be scheduled.

Previous Purchase: 9/7/06 - $840,000

Bank "Buyback": 5/6/08 - $748,161

Listing History: 5/24/08 - $694,900
Reduced: 07/28/08 - to $689,900
Reduced: 08/29/08 - to $675,000 (19.6% rollback with much more to go)

Thank you to our reader who e-mailed me about this building. I thought it was interesting so that is why it is being featured.

There is so much to go into here but I think I will try to keep it short since this is a non-SM property. First off, the $965/month HOA is massive. This comes out to a cost of $11.6K/year. Have fun with that!

Second, the building was built in 2003. That means there will be a TON of people who have purchased in the past few years, many of them likely having made somewhat speculative purchases. Taking a cursory glance at the MLS, I see a ton of units in this building listed for sale. In addition, it seems like they all are being reduced endlessly with many (most?) of them being short sales or foreclosures.

I think this building will be absolutely infested with foreclosures over the next 12-18 months. I would recommend not touching any units like these for at least 18 months, as it appears almost inevitable that there will be a huge amount of pressure on prices for quite some time to come. You want to be buying AFTER a bunch of foreclosures have gone through and killed the comps, not when a bunch of delusional sellers (and banks) are still out there hoping to get bids on their short sales...

Finally, I will close by highlighting some of Jeff Bowman's recent commentary last given to us on August 27th: "Condo financing is restrictive at most banks. This is especially true if it is over 4 stories. The minimum down payment on a high rise condo is 30-40%. This steams from the enormous drop in prices for high rise luxury homes across the country(i.e. Miami, Las Vegas.)"

Let Me Dust Off My Crystal Ball...*Update 1*

1021 12th #104 was first featured in September 2007 as a failed short sale.

Original Purchase: 4/7/06 - $530,000

Originally Listed: 7/30/07 - $585,000
Reduced: 08/21/07 - to $575,000
Reduced: 09/07/07 - to $500,000

We then featured it again in June of this year when we saw the bank "buyback" go through. Our crystal ball told us that it was only a matter of time before the foreclosure would show up on the market.


Trustee's Deed Upon Sale: 5/13/08 - $374,250 (Morgan Stanley Trust is the buyer)

Foreclosure Listing History: 9/4/08 - $384,500

Canyon Flip - For Sale Or Rent *Update 1*

We last featured 386 Entrada Drive back in March.

In my opinion this is a classic example of a terribly gaudy flip which started out with exceptionally lofty expectations (with respect to the profit the flipper thought he would reap).

Why do I say this? See the pics from last time and then look at the photo to the left. Notice the marble/onyx/whatever it is on the bottom left of the photo? Yeah, putting fancy stone ON THE SIDEWALK really screams high class...

Previous Purchase: 3/31/06 - $990,000

Listing History: 2/4/08 - $1,999,000

Re-Listed: 4/28/08 - $1,919,000
Reduced: 07/10/08 - to $1,699,000
Reduced: 09/06/08 - to $1,649,000

Cecil Gale (the third) *Update 1*

We last featured 1060 Harvard back in July as part of our Cecil Gale series.

From the previous post I said: "...after touring both this house and 865 Harvard, I thought that there should be a gap of at least $50K between them. One positive to note is that this house is now "the nice" Cecil Gale (compared to 2722 Washington) and in a better location - whereas before it was inferior"

Remember, 865 Harvard sold on 7/11/08 for $1.725M


So from this, you can see that I was projecting a price of roughly $1.675M for this house. Here is how it played out.

Previous Purchase: 7/18/06 - $1,430,000

Listing History: 6/5/08 - $1,799,000
Reduced: 7/17/08 - $1,699,000

Sold: 9/10/08 - $1,692,000

Turns out I was just a bit too low on final selling price, but I nailed the $100K price cut earlier when I said: "1060 Harvard was thus overpriced at its current asking price of $1.799 because it was clearly inferior to 865. I argued (and some here agreed) that roughly a $100K cut was in order."

Hard to get a true read on how much the price changed over the past 2 years because this was now "highly remodeled & restored" with a"Fabulous new kitchen, new appliances, custom cabinetry, new bathrooms, new HVAC, new roof, updated plumbing & electrical".

This is pretty much how I expect the downturn to play out. High quality locations won't gap down the same way that many condos and more poorly located properties will. Sales will still take place, but as time goes on I expect values to continue to creep lower.

Condo Sales Backlog

I have had an opportunity to go through a bunch of the older posts on this blog and see which condos have sold. I am talking about condos here because we have already done "update" posts for most sales which have taken place on previously featured houses.

So instead of doing a bunch of update posts for these condos, I am just trying to clear the backlog and get it done with one update post. This list likely isn't comprehensive because there are probably a few sales which have occured but which didn't yet hit zillow or property shark when I was looking.

1105 Idaho #209 - 90403
Purchase Price: 10/3/05 - $559,000
Listing History: 4/5/08 - $394,900
Sold: 5/9/08 - $394,000 (29.5% rollback)

1144 17th #8 - 90403
Purchase Price: 12/12/95 - $179,000
Listing History: 1/10/08 - $638,000
Reduced: 01/23/08 - to $632,000
Reduced: 01/31/08 - to $628,000
Sold: 5/23/08 - $580,500

2911 4th #114 - 90405
Previous Purchase: 6/7/05 - $720,000
Listing History: 6/1/07 - $899,000
Reduced: 07/19/07 - to $865,000
Reduced: 09/26/07 - to $850,000
Reduced: 10/23/07 - to $830,000
Reduced: 03/01/08 - to $799,000
Sold: 5/29/08 - $720,000

1128 Princeton #3 - 90403 (photo above)
Previous Purchase: 10/26/99 - $595,000
Listing History: 9/27/07 - $1,069,900
Reduced: 10/16/07 - to $1,029,000
April 08 listed as short sale - $989,000
Relisted History: 7/6/08 - $1,060,000
Sold: 8/22/08 - $1,030,000 (I'm surprised they got this much - can anyone confirm that this was a normal sale or does anyone have any info?)

1217 20th #103 - 90404
Previous Purchase: 11/22/05 - $582,000
Listing History: 4/4/08 - $459,900
Sold: 6/3/08 - $450,000 (22.7% rollback)

2025 4th #102A - 90405
Previous Purchase: 5/24/05 - $480,000
Listing History: 3/10/08 - $424,900
Reduced: 04/04/08 - to $415,000
Sold: 7/8/08 - $400,000 (16.7% rollback)

1225 Washington #3 - 90403
Previous Purchase: 3/7/05 - $441,000
Listing History: 4/29/08 - $414,900
Sold: 6/25/08 - $399,000 (9.5% rollback)

New Spec on 25th

Address: 603 25th - 90402

Details: New construction, 6 bed/6.5 bath house, 8,700 sq ft lot

Description: Brand-new construction. 6BD, 6 ½BA. Light filled rooms w/high ceilings & hwd flrs thruout. Spacious LR, Maid’s, guest quarters and library. 3 fireplaces located in LR, FR & mstr. French doors in FR lead to elegant covered patio & lovely landscaped yard w/fire pit. Gourmet kit with Viking appliances, breakfast room & butler’s pantry. Luxurious mstr ste w/his/hers closets, balcony and loft overlooking the city. Turret has office w/balcony & views. Two car garage and porte cochere.

Previous Purchase (tear down): 3/31/05 - $1,975,000

Listing History: 9/4/08 - $4,995,000

This appears (from the outside at least) to be a pretty good quality spec which checks all the boxes (good street, good lot size, lots of beds/baths, etc). However, price still matters...

Getting $5M wouldn't have been easy even back when the market was healthy. I think they are dreaming with this asking price and will be doing some serious price cutting in the near future.

While we are on the subject of high end specs, I noticed that 230 21st Place withdrew from the market a while back. Anyone know what happened to it? They lease it out again?

Another to watch will be 411 Lincoln which started out at $5.795M (totally dreaming) and is now pending. After some price cuts it was last at $4.495M before going pending.

Finally, there is that re-listing, lower-end new spec over at 714 14th which is now down to $3.35M (started around $3.7M I believe).

I Want a Refund...And Some Profit *Update 3*

We last featured 517 14th back in July.

We have already put this seller "on notice" for making price reductions that are too small. Seems like they still haven't figured out how to properly get this thing sold as they have yet again made a small price cut.

The other interesting dynamic I see going on here is that this is a case of a seller really "chasing the market down". If they had listed at a realistic price and then did a big cut on the first try, they probably would have sold.

Now the market has declined further, financing has gotten tougher and more expensive, and....there is a bunch of additional inventory that just hit the market in 90402 (go check it out, a bunch just came onto market). I believe this house can sell for $2M, but not a ton more. This seller needs to get serious as the traditional selling season is now over.

Previous Purchase: 9/2/05 - $2,005,000

Listing History: 5/1/08 - $2,388,000
Reduced: 06/11/08 - to $2,349,000
Reduced: 07/19/08 - to $2,250,000
Reduced: 09/05/08 - to $2,198,000

More Ashland For Sale

Address: 2114 Ashland - 90405

Details: 2 bed/1 bath 1,093 sq ft house, 7,000 sq ft lot

Details: Reduced! Motivated seller. Move-in ready in sunset park. 2+1 1938 character home with art-deco touches in great neighborhood. Hardwood floors, fireplace and bay window in step-down living room. Formal dining room. Sunny and bright on large flat lot, perfect for expansion or live in as is. Detached 2-car garage and alley access.


Previous Purchase: 2/28/06 - $1,000,000

Listing History: 5/19/08 - $1,350,000
Reduced: 06/08/08 - to $1,299,000
Reduced: 07/19/08 - to $1,120,000
Reduced: 08/15/08 - to $1,079,000

Seeing a Woodland Hills address for the buyer on Property Shark...and this was put up for sale roughly 2 years after the first purchase and for a nice (hoped for) $350K gain. I think we need to get closer to the $1M mark before this sells. Buying 2 bedroom shacks for any price during the run up seemed to work...things are different these days.

Freeway Foreclosure...Really a "Great Area"??? *Update 2*

We last featured 3121 Urban back in May. This foreclosure (which may have had some fraud involved at some point) finally sold.

Previous Purchase: 9/26/06 - $1,390,000

Bank "buyback": 1/29/08 - $1,040,000

Listing History: 3/7/08 - $836,900
Reduced: 04/05/08 - to $824,900
Reduced: 04/17/08 - to $809,900

SOLD: 8/8/08 - $699,000 (49.7% rollback)

Sunset Park - The Airport Flip **Update 2**

We first featured 2314 Pier back in September 2007. We then had our first update when the property was put up for rent at $4,950 later that year.

The property then went on to play the re-list game in 2008 but still sat on the market for months.

Finally, we got a sale. Remember, this is not an apples to apples comparison since the flipper here spent money (and time) upgrading the house. This entire endeavor certainly produced a loss.


Previous Sale: 3/23/07 - $920,000

Redone and described as "Construction just completed!! Totally and professionally redesigned using best materials and professional craftsmanship. Beautiful new kitchen and baths, shimmering hardwood floors, gorgeous master suite with large bath and walk-in closet. Newly landscaped private gardens."

Listing History: 7/9/07 - $1,250,000
Reduced: 08/17/07 - to $1,195,000

Re-List History: 4/3/08 - $1,099,000

SOLD: 8/15/08 - $1,025,000

Quick Info - 837 22nd

Although we never did a post on 837 22nd, we had at least one reader who was interested in this property.

Just thought I would pass on the info that it sold in case anyone wanted to know what happened to it. I believe the house had been on and off the market (playing re-list games) and was last offered around $2.6M.

SOLD: 8/5/08 - $2,461,875

Setting a New Floor

Address: 370 22nd - 90402

Details: Tear down, 7,949 sq ft lot

Description: Prime location! Great tear down located between san vicente and wilshire on 22nd st., within walking distance to brentwood country club. Priced to sell! This won't last! Come build your dream home!

Previous Purchase: n/a

Listing History: 8/27/08 - $1,750,000


Looking at this property on a map, I see no reason for any location discount. The lot is on the smaller side but it isn't an abnormal size.

Seeing as how we have seen some livable houses sell around the $2M mark, it makes sense for a true tear down to be listed below $2M.

Gotta give this seller some credit for showing they are serious. I expect this listing price to elicit some interest and potentially a quick sale if the seller is actually willing to sell for around $1.75M. This will be an interesting property to watch. Someone with access needs to e-mail me when it closes.

SMDM on Location: Downtown Seattle

Thought I would spend a bit of time in an area with an "immune" real estate market (just as I tried to do when I was in London).


I stumbled across the "lockbox glut" and thought it just had to be posted. Also saw a ton of units still under construction (photo below)




Turns out, the "immune" fairytale is nothing more than a case of our often discussed "lagging the cycle".







I could go on and on about all the signs I saw (yes, I mean this literally as well)...but this is a Santa Monica blog. Point is, a lot of folks were/are under the "immunity" fairytale, and reality is going to be painful. Good luck on those pre-sales (photo to the right).