Thursday, July 30, 2009
Details: 1 bed/2 bath 1,372 sq ft "loft style" condo, 2002 construction, 2 car garage parking, $300/month HOA
Description: 1 bedroom 2 bath condo. Architectually unique contemporary interior loft style. Great top floor unit with views of trees, city and mountains. Features include polished concrete floors, designer kitchen with built in appliances. Living room with fireplace and adjacent balcony. 2 car gated parking.
12/11/02 - $630,000
4/7/06 - $1,230,000
5/21/09 - $533,000 (Bank "buyback")
Listing History: 6/29/09 - $699,900 (43% off peak)
Alright, we've got 2002 construction here and I think that ultimately we will be rolling all the way back past the original purchase in 2002. Market right now might be in the mid $600s but I have no problem seeing this going into the $500s. The location doesn't look great and this is only a 1 bedroom (but it has two baths and more square footage than most 1 beds).
Another interesting data point for this unit would be what appears to be the REO sale of a comparable unit in the same building earlier this year. See below for history:
#304 Purchase History:
2/25/03 - $610,000
10/31/06 - $1,389,000
11/25/08 - $1,104,900 (Bank "buyback")
REO Listing: 12/30/08 - $725,000
SOLD: 1/28/09 - $710,000 (49% decline)
I think the buyer of unit #304 jumped the gun and bought a year too early -- and I think they could have saved $100k by waiting a year. Interesting situation nonetheless. Thanks to the reader who e-mailed me about this.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Post 1 -- October 7, 2007
Post 2 -- June 23, 2009
Previous Purchase: 4/4/06 - $1,335,000
Listing History: March 2007 - $2,400,000
Re-listed: some time in later 2007 - $2,195,000
Re-listed: at least several more times over the next year+ at around $2mm
Listed Again: 1/23/09 - $1,995,000
Reduced: 06/06/09 - to $1,895,000
Re-listed Again (now as a short sale): 7/27/09 - $1,495,000
So here we are, with a new listing (with new photos -- although I used the old photo for this post), and the scarlet-letter phrase of "short sale" is now prominently displayed.
As we have discussed in the past, the problem with this house is that it is small and the lay out is odd/cramped. Go check it out if you don't believe me. The lot is only 4,750 sq ft, and the house is old (aside from the lipstick they slapped on -- I mean, the granite and SS...).
Sorry to be harsh, but this thing has been a joke of (an on and off) listing for years...time to clear out the attic. The market needs to get healthy again, and clearing off listings like this is the only way to get there...and yes, I think the current asking price is too high. Go back to the 2006 purchase price and cut off a good chunk of change to account for the fact that we are beyond 2006 rollbacks (especially for odd properties such as this one) -- then add back in a bit of value for the "upgrades", but since they are largely cosmetic I think they don't get too much credit.
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Details: 4 bed/2 bath ???? sq ft house, 8,880 sq ft lot
Description: Prime santa monica n of montana hip storybook home. Country english charm w/modern interiors. Wonderfully landscaped. Enchanting backyard w/gr8 guest house, 2-car garage w/office above. Wood floors throughout. Dining & living room w/fp open to family room w/solarium glass windows. Large eat-in kitchen w/center island, breakfast bar & computer area. Master w/hi-pitched ceiling, walk-in closet & fp. Downstairs rooms w/surround sound open to expansive deck w/spa & beautiful gardens. Franklin school
Previous Purchase: 8/5/05 - $2,750,000
Listing History: 7/10/09 - $2,650,000
This is sort of a follow up to the last post I just did on 632 11th. The house on 11th is asking $200k (or 7%) MORE than its mid-2005 purchase price. This house on 23rd is asking $100k (or 4%) LESS than its mid-2005 purchase price.
The moral of the story is that prices have rolled back past mid-2005 levels. The seller of the house on 11th is delusional and needs to cut the price ASAP. The seller of the house on 23rd is showing that they are more realistic -- although I think they will likely need to lower their price to get a sale done.
Saturday, July 25, 2009
Details: 5 bed/5.5 bath 4,084 sq ft house, 7,500 sq ft lot, 2005 construction
Description: New custom mediterranean completed in 2005, with unparalleled finishes and quality construction. Superb floor plan, features formal living room, dining, butler's and walk-in pantries, large gourmet kitchen opens to spacious family room and nook. Grand master with private balcony and incredible walk-in closet. Luxurious spa-like master bath includes steam shower, spa tub, and vanity area. Enchanting landscaping surrounds front and back yard with barbecue area, patio, green belt and sport court.
Previous Purchase: 7/29/05 - $3,050,000
Listing History: 7/17/09 - $3,250,000
This seller is probably listing too high and it looks like they want a refund on their 2005 spec home purchase. The developer (I'm assuming) bought the land in early 2003 for $1.255.
This seller bought into the bubble when things were already nice and frothy. They are going to have to do better than a mid 2005 rollback to sell this, and thus I believe this should go for a sub-$3mm price. Bring on the cuts.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Details: 5 bed/4.5 bath 3,769 sq ft house, 8,699 sq ft lot
Description: Best value in prime N of Montana location. Modern 5BD + 4.5BA. Incredible indoor/outdoor feel w/tons of skylights, beams & custom architectural designs thruout. Step-down living rm w/FP & built-ins, formal dining rm & charming, bright breakfast rm. Open chef's kitchen w/granite counters & center island. Family rm opens to private yard w/large patio. Bright master suite boasts dbl walk-in closets, dressing area and large bath w/spa tub, glass brick shower & bidet. Fanklin School District.
Listing History: 3/26/09 - $2,595,000
Reduced at some point to - $2,495,000
SOLD: 7/21/09 - $2,250,000
This is a full size lot in a solid location in GRS with no location discount. This sales price is just about what "lot value" was at the peak of the market. Today you get a 5 bed/4.5 bath house tossed in for free...
Think this house would have sold for north of $3mm at peak? Using the last post on the high end green apples to apples, if we estimate prices are down roughly 25% from peak, that gets us to a peak value estimate of exactly $3mm on this. Thoughts? (and yes, this is a "modern" design which we all know is a bit harder to sell...)
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Listing History: 10/30/08 - $4,800,000
Reduced: 02/21/09 - to $4,495,000
Reduced: 03/04/09 - to $4,199,000
Re-Listed: 4/30/09 - $3,695,000
SOLD: 7/17/09 - $3,498,000
Remember, this is a 5 bed/6 bath, 4,690 sq ft new "green" home on a 8,938 sq ft lot. It was done by the same builder/developer as 533 23rd which you can see in my original post.
Here is the history for 533 23rd:
Listed on 9/25/07 for $4,790,000
SOLD: 11/21/07 - $4,745,000
So to wrap it all up, we went from $4.745mm to $3.498mm (a decline of $1.247mm) in a little less than two years.
That is a decline of 26.3%. I think this should add to the mounting pressure on other houses priced north of $3mm (especially those that are older). And yes, I think the decline will continue for some time to come.
Saturday, July 18, 2009
To refresh, this is a 3 bed/2.5 bath 2,141 sq ft townhouse built in 2008.
Listing History: 2/22/08 - $1,795,000
Re-Listed: 5/20/09 - $1,525,000
And of course, when this unit was first listed, it was actually "new"...now it has been leased out for the last year and is still infested with the lowliest creatures on earth -- renters! Per the listing description: "24-48 hour notice to show, tenant occupied"
The seller also appears to have switched real estate agents. Maybe going with a new agent from a new company will do the trick? No. Fail. The problem was always that the price was too high and it looks like the seller is once again making the same mistake. The price is STILL too high.
Finally, my favorite angle on this has to have come from a comment left in the comments section from the first time I featured this property. It was the very final comment and it was left after myself and others had talked about how delusional the price was on this unit.
These townhomes have had offers as high as 1.7 million and the leases you are calling rip-offs are actually being leased. The developers aren't chumps-- they can afford their own abodes without having to
Of course, the kicker here is that this comment was left by a semi well known real estate agent in the area...WarChestSM says: I bet those non chump developers wish they took those $1.7mm offers now...because we are now down to $1.525mm and with prices having fallen much more and staring the magical 60 DOM number head on, this unit needs another big price cut to have a chance at selling.
Friday, July 17, 2009
Details: 3 bed/3 bath 2,948 sq ft house, 4,090 sq ft lot, 2006 construction
Description: Stunning modern, green, and extremely private 3bd/3ba architectural masterpiece is just blocks from the beach. Elegant custom cabinetry and lighting, brazilian walnut floors, sleek built-ins and expansive rooftop deck with fabulous views. Glass walls fold away to reveal beautiful patios allowing for the perfect indoor/outdoor flow. Close to main st shopping and dining.
Previous Purchase: 1/17/07 - $2,550,000
Listing History: 10/15/08 - $3,500,000
Reduced: 02/12/09 - to $2,995,000
Reduced: 06/24/09 - to $2,500,000
At 275 days on market, this zombie is getting old! It is almost comical that they started out with a price tag of $3.5mm.
This house isn't exactly your traditional family home...but it looks sort of interesting from the photos. The problem is that you are right on a busy street and you have a small lot (likely very little yard), but you get what looks like a cool roof-top deck to make up for it a bit.
If you were the unique type of buyer interested in a property like this, I think the question you would have to ask yourself is: "Can the seller afford to mark this to market?". Especially given the tough location and the high price tag for this area, I think this thing probably doesn't have a shot at getting over $2mm...so you need to figure out what position the seller is in and if they can actually come down to reality.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Details: 3 bed/2 bath 1,100 sq ft house, 4,722 sq ft lot, updated kitchen, Paraguay wood (seriously)
Description: Picture perfect spanish home w/ guest suite & entertainers back yard. Enter your private oasis through the hand-carved brazilian cedar door to a living rm w/fireplace, hrdwd flrs & recessed lighting. Updated kitchen w/granite counters & stainless appliances. Beautiful talavera & saltillo tile work throughout. Wonderful outdoor living in the lush backyard w/fireplace, bbq & fountain. 2 car garage or use as office/guest space w/permitted bathroom. Timbo wooden gates from paraguay enhance the yard.
Listing History: 6/23/09 - $1,149,000
I'm going to be nice and simply suggest that those who might be interested in this house take a hard look at the location. Second, take a hard look at the very late 2005 price and then the very late 2003 price. Finally, take a look at the small interior square footage and the very small lot size.
This isn't going to end well. They have no shot at getting over a million and something about this screams desperate semi-flip and trouble down the line. Yikes.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Details: 2 bed/2.5 bath 1,811 sq ft townhouse, $375/Month HOA, 2001 Construction
Description: GORGEOUS CONTEMPORARY TOWNHOUSE. 2BD 2.5 BA + LRG LOFT. ONLY A FEW BLOCKS FROM MONTANA SHOPS & EATERIES. W/ S FACING PVT SUNDECK. OVERSIZED MASTER SUITE W/ VAULTED CEILINGS, WALK-IN CLOSET, PVT BALCONY & SPA-LIKE MASTER BATH. SPACIOUS 2ND BEDROOM & BATH. GOURMET KITCHEN W/ GRANITE COUNTERS, CUSTOM CABINETS & TOP OF THE LINE S/S APPLIANCES, SLATE PATIO OFF FORMAL DINING RM, OPEN LIVING RM. BRAND NEW HARDWOOD FLOORS & CARPETING, FP, PLANTATION SHUTTERS. DIRECT ACCESS PVT GARAGE W/ EXTRA STORAGE.
Previous Purchase: 11/9/06 - $1,189,000
Listing History: 4/13/09 - $1,099,000
SOLD: 5/27/09 - $1,047,250
This seller did a good job with this listing. They listed right in time to get the spring selling season bounce, they listed below their purchase price in 2006, and they accepted a below asking price bid after just 14 days on market. From the listing description, it also looks like they dolled up the place a bit with some new floors, etc to get it in prime selling condition. Of course, this is 2001 construction so everything should be pretty new and nice anyway.
Even if we account for some potential recent minor upgrades, this price is only about 12% lower than the late 2006 purchase price. So we are probably somewhere in 2005 territory -- which I would argue is too high since we have seen units in this neighborhood go at 2004 prices. However, this unit looks pretty nice, they listed it property and they took advantage of seasonal strength.
What else? Minor location discount for being on busier 14th, but it is hard to tell how much traffic noise they would get inside the unit. Private parking, granite, ss, sundeck, loft, etc, etc. Bells and whistles. $578/sq ft.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Details: 3 bed/2 bath 1,581 sq ft condo, $380/month HOA, 1980 building, "remodeled"
Description: BACK ON MARKET! WELL MAINTAINED BOUTIQUE BUILDING LOCATED STEPS FROM WILSHIRE CAFES, SHOPS & RESTAURANTS. THREE BEDROOM TWO BATH SPCIOUS HOME WITH GAS BURNING FIREPLACE, RECESSED LIGHTING, DINING AREA OVERLOOKING BALCONY, REMODELED KITHCEN WITH STAINLESS STELL APPLIANCES AND PRIVATE LAUNDRY. SIDE BY SIDE PARKING IN GATED COMMUNITY GARAGE WITH EXTRA STORAGE. HOA DUES INCLUDED EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE.
11/2/05 - $725,000
8/29/02 - $460,000
Listing History: 1/9/09 - $799,000
SOLD: 7/10/09 - $700,000 ($443/sq ft)
Pardon my negativity, but here goes: The listing agent made at least two errors in the listing. The first is that they listed this as being a 90403 zip code (nice try, but this is south of Wilshire). Second, they (accidentally or not) listed this as a "Residential Single Family" property. Finally...they used all caps in the description. Sigh...
Next, while the spring/summer selling season seems to have brought about a nice uptick in activity in the lower end of the market (mainly condos), this buyer really whiffed it in my opinion. Take a look at those previous purchases made before the current one. At the current price they got an early 2005 rollback at best (if we adjust for the possibility of the upgrades having been done by the last seller). I have never claimed to know how far back we will go, but I think that mid/late 2002 values have a good shot at being reached -- especially on condos -- especially south of Wilshire. Maybe it was the $/sq ft metric or maybe it was the holy grail of 3 bedrooms...but something about this property caused the buyer to abandon rationality and jump on what I believe will ultimately be a case of a $250,000 impatient, impulsive purchase.
For those of you looking at condos, there is certainly a seasonal rally going on right now. Prices aren't rising but the activity should help things hold better for the time being and attractive units priced rationally will likely be eliciting multiple bids (I have received several e-mails about this so I'm not just spouting off nonsense). I would advise buyers sidestep the temporary madness as I see much more favorable opportunities down the line.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Even more realism surfaces NOM with planned July 27 auction of 740 21st Place. Built in '28 and looking remodeled, it's a 4 bed/4 bath Gillette Square -- 2,913 sqft house/8,975 sqft land. From outside looks quite nice--not a tear down...Looks like the opening bid is $1,950,000 for 740 21st Place (last sale in April '04 for $2,180,000). Now that's real realism -- without all that messy teardown and nerve-wracking construction. But perhaps there's a secret "reserve" price and other auction complications.
I thought this was an interesting situation which deserved its own post. With RealtyTrac showing an opening bid amount of $1.95mm and the previous sale in of $2.18mm in mid 2004, we are looking at a potential 2003 rollback if that opening bid price is legitimate.
This is especially interesting because almost every situation that I have looked at with these auctions has been the same --- the bank/lender sets the opening bid at the amount owed on the first lien (+ penalties, accrued interest, etc). This has almost always been an amount which has turned out to be much higher than the now much lower fair market value.
Here we have an opening bid which seems at face value to be more realistic. However, I don't know what condition the house is in or if there are other extenuating circumstances. From my understanding, you have to show up with cashiers checks for the full amount of the purchase price if you intend on buying at auction...Pretty hard to do for most normal buyers (especially when the amount is nearly $2mm). I don't think the opening bid is stupidly low or anything, so I'm guessing this won't sell at auction, but I am interested in following the story. If you know anything about this situation or have any great insight into the auction process, please comment or e-mail me. Thank you to "Facts and Feelings" for bringing this up.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Details: 5 bed/6 bath 6,859 sq ft house, 7,500 sq ft lot, 2004 construction
Description: Inspired by simplicity and natural elegance, this gracious mediterranean seamlessly fuses modern elements with classically refined spirit. Designed by jay charles and custom finished by current owner, this homeoffers an ultimate calif. Lifestyle. Three levels of luxury, three bedrooms up, two down, great room, family room, spacious back yard.
Previous Purchase: 8/13/04 - $3,950,000
Listing History: 2/5/09 - $4,400,000
Reduced: 04/02/09 - to $3,999,000
Reduced: 06/11/09 - to $3,899,000
You guys know the drill -- Here we have what appears to be a fairly rational and realistic seller. They were a little delusional with the starting price but have done a fair job of cutting. I think another good cut or simply the acceptance of an offer below list can get it done.
Obviously I think prices are due to go lower than 2004 levels, but for those who must buy today, these are the only types of sellers you want to deal with.
Previous Purchase: 7/26/06 - $1,500,000
Listing History: 10/10/07 - $1,659,000
Reduced: 01/12/08 - to $1,599,000
Reduced: 03/14/08 - to $1,549,500
Reduced: (date unknown) - to $1,350,000
Bank/Lender Buyback: 1/8/09 - $1,0625,500
REO Listing: 1/14/09 - $949,900
SOLD: 7/6/09 - $875,000
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Previous Purchase: 1/30/04 - $1,020,000
Listing History: 8/13/08 - $1,499,000
Re-Listed: 3/26/09 - $1,385,000
SOLD: 7/2/09 - $1,250,000
When we last featured this house at its $1.385mm price, I said I thought it was at least $100k overpriced. I also said that I could see this going below $1mm in the intermediate term.
Once again, I take a look at what is selling and I keep thinking that just about everything selling is still due for another 20% decline over the next few years.
Finally, this is an 8,000 sq ft lot...this sales price should pretty clearly demonstrate that there are a few other overpriced lot value type properties currently on the market in 90403.
Monday, July 6, 2009
Details: 3 bed/2 bath 1,912 sq ft house, 6,996 sq ft lot, 1947 construction
Description: Feel the ocean breezes from this wonderful 3 bedroom, 2 bath Traditional located in prime Sunset Park. This 1 story home on a tree lined street has it all. Formal entryway, wood floors, living room with fireplace, dining area, family room, 2 bedrooms on the opposite side from the master, den or nursery, laundry room, French doors lead to large grassy yard and attached 2 car garage. All located within the much sought after Grant School district. A joy to come home to!
Previous Purchase: 1/29/02 - $680,000
Listing History: 3/18/09 - $1,099,000
Reduced at some point to - $1,050,000
SOLD: 7/1/09 - $1,000,000
If we assume roughly 10% annual appreciation after 2002 on a linear path, this sale represents roughly a late 2005/early 2006 rollback. Very rough, but I think you should get the picture that with no apparent improvements, this buyer just overpaid by a fair margin.
But the problem doesn't stop there. Even if you get a good "deal" right now, all signs are pointing to additional sizable declines to come.
I don't think you should try to time the bottom exactly, but make no mistake, we are still in serious bubble territory and I think it is very unsafe to buy. I have seen few if not any sales where I didn't think to myself, "there has to be at least another 20% downside over the next few years". Be careful out there.
Details: 3 bed/2 bath 1,238 sq ft house, 4,965 sq ft lot, "totally redone"
Description: CHECK OUT THIS FANTASTIC PRICE! IN THE HEART OF SANTA MONICA CANYON. Totally redone w/only the finest materials: Walnut, stone & marble floors, SS appliances w/a 6-burner Wolf range, Carrera counters, California closets, pre-wired sound system, solatubes, tankless WH and so much more....Flooded w/light this lovely home features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths; guest bedroom/den opens to spacious patio & exquisitely terraced hillside. Close to the beach in a tranquill setting.
Previous Purchase: 10/24/03 - $1,010,000
Listing History: 4/16/09 - $1,299,000
SOLD: 6/3/09 - $1,350,000
This set up is similar to my last post showing a canyon house selling for well above its 2003 price. However, what I forgot to take into account in the last post was the cost of all the upgrades. This time, I won't make that mistake. From the description, it looks like some decent coin might have been put into this, thus making the rollback closer to 2003 than it first appears. Of course, I am assuming the upgrades were done post the 2003 purchase (as they were confirmed to have been in the last post).
Second, this is a very nice example of a very realistic seller. They priced their property at an attractive level and got a bid $50k over list and the property was only "active" on the market for 15 days. Good job.
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Details: 3 bed/2 bath 1,751 sq ft house, 5,793 sq ft lot, "everything remodeled"
Description: Must see!! Private, gated estate just steps from the beach! Charming Spanish home with open and bright floor plan, outdoor fireplace and settings! Great family or entertainment home. Hardwood floors throughout. Everything remodeled. Close to great restaurants and schools. Will consider all reasonable offers.
Previous Purchases: 5/23/06 - $1,705,000
8/1/03 - $1,125,000
Listing History: 3/13/09 - $1,579,000
SOLD: 5/6/09 - $1,511,000
As you can see from the previous purchases, this is a solid rollback, but is still a far ways off from the 2003 price.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Details: 2 bed/1 bath 768 sq ft house, 2,408 sq ft lot, "condo alternative", short sale
Description: Charming, Vintage California Bungalow in great condition. Light and bright throughout. Hardwood floors, updated kitchen and bath, decorator paint. Lovely patio area. Separate bonus room/office off of rear patio. Fabulous opportunity to own in Santa Monica, condo alternative. Close to shops and restaurants. Short Sale. Agents please see private remarks.
Previous Purchase: 2/28/06 - $775,000
Listing History: 2/27/09 - $649,500
SOLD: 6/19/09 - $659,500
Here is another example where I see healthier market signs. First, this property was only "active" for 18 days before going into escrow. Second, this was a short sale which not only got done, but it was done relatively quickly. If we see a bunch more of these situations, it will help show us that the banks/lenders are moving past the denial stage and are actually looking to take their losses and move on. We need to see that across the board before the market can really stabilize. We aren't there yet and it will likely be a slow moving process.
Finally, before you get too excited, take a look once again at the previous sale before the last one in 2006.
11/6/01 - $415,000
Details: 3 bed/2 bath 1,645 sq ft house, 7,279 sq ft lot, "in need of TLC"
Description: Reduced. Motivated seller. Submit offers. Spacious 1600sqft 3+2 in highly desirable Ocean Park area. Close to beach, shopping/dining, & transportation.7200+ sqft lot has large yard with pool & covered entertainment area. Alley access, 2 car garage.Property is in need of TLC. Perfect for clients looking for a fixer or remodel to create their own private oasis in prime Santa Monica area. Seller motivated. Please do not disturb owner.
Listing History: 7/31/08 - $1,060,000
Reduced at some point to - $990,000
SOLD: 6/12/09 - $885,000
I don't have any previous sale info (long time owner?), and I don't have the complete listing history, but you can see here that the seller chased the market down a bit, but at least was still able to get the sale done. I figured I would feature this property briefly as I am going through some older data points which have been piling up. More to come.
Details: 2 bed/2 bath 1,153 sq ft condo, 1971 building, $252/month HOA, "remodeled...updated"
Description: LOCATION! LOCATION! LOCATION! Walking distance to beach and 3rd St. - GREAT VALUE - Top floor end unit with only 1 common wall - sunny & spacious bedrooms - large balcony off living room facing 12th st - wood flooring throughout - renovated kitchen with granite countertops - remodeled master bath - updated fixtures - plantation shutters - skylights - 2 assigned covered parking w/ extra storage - washer/dryer in unit - EASY TO SEE!
Previous Purchase: 10/4/05 - $599,000
Listing History: 3/16/09 - $559,000
SOLD: 5/12/09 - $552,000
This unit was only "active" on the market for 11 days before going into escrow and clearing with a price very near asking. Good to see these situations.
From the description, it looks like some money was spent updating this unit. So as always, the timing of the upgrades will impact the rollback severity. If the seller was the one to do the upgrades, this rollback is more severe.
Either way, I would have a hard time imagining that this unit is anywhere near a bottom in terms of pricing...Check out the previous sale before the one in 2005.
2/26/02 - $286,000