944 5th Street Update

Address: 944 5th Street #101 - 90403

Details: 2 bed/2.5 bath 1,817 sq ft townhouse, 2005 construction, $372/month HOA

Description: Beautiful 2 Bed, 2.5 Bath front unit town home like new with loft and roof top sun deck. Gourmet kitchen features SS appliances and Ceasar stone counter tops with breakfast bar open to large Dining area. Living room with fireplace and French doors to patio. Master with Lux bath, walk-in closet, fireplace and balcony. Expansive 3rd floor loft as office or 3rd bedroom. There is a 2 car private garage with direct entry. Near beach and Promenade.

Previous Purchase: 1/13/06 - $1,299,000

Listing History: 11/16/09 - $1,229,000

SOLD: 1/22/10 - $1,190,000

This price comes out to $655/sq ft for almost new construction (2005). This price is probably somewhere in the range of an early 2005 price. I don't think this is a particularly attractive rollback -- especially when you consider that the building was completed in 2005. This is important because it means every other owner in the building is underwater.

For example, I featured unit #105 from the same building back in December 2008. It is also a 2 bed/2.5 bath unit but is smaller at 1,492 sq ft. It was last purchased in March 2006 for $1,279,000 -- which comes out to $857/sq ft.

When they put it on the market in 2008 they originally asked $1.35mm but then cut the price down to $1.22mm. The listing eventually expired in the first half of 2009. But let's look at the final listing price of $1.22mm. At that price, they were asking $818/sq ft...but we just had unit #101 sell for $655/sq ft!!

I think there are several takeaways from this. First, I don't think you really want to buy into a building where everyone else is significantly underwater. As all of you should know by now, underwater situations are much more likely to become distressed and put additional pressure on prices. So why buy something now at an early 2005 rollback price when you can wait and potentially take advantage of softer prices in the future? Second, unit #105 is yet another property which has been added to the shadow inventory. They wanted to sell and cut the price a fair amount, but they were still way too high and they didn't get a deal done. If they listed it once and had it on the market for 279 days, I'm willing to bet that they will be back at some point trying to sell again. This example illustrates once again why it is going to take so long to work through this cycle.

Apples to Apples --$800K Overpriced *Update 1*

I last featured 229 22nd back in March 2009 when I said that it was at least $800k overpriced.

Details: 4 bed/4.5 bath 4,227 sq ft house, 7,550 sq ft lot, 2003 construction

Previous Purchase: 5/19/05 - $3,200,000

Listing History: 2/17/09 - $3,999,999
Reduced down to $3,600,000
Expired after 178 days on market

Re-Listed: 1/12/10 - $3,200,000


This is a nice apples to apples pricing situation because the house was built in 2003 so we don't have to worry about a remodel situation muddying the water in terms of valuation estimates.

I think $3.2mm is too much for this though. This pricing segment is not subject to the same level of government intervention/manipulation as the lower priced segment and things here are a tougher sell. And for all the talk by some about how things are getting purchased quickly, I think these examples show that there is likely a fair amount of "shadow" inventory which needs to be worked through. That's why there isn't a "V" bottom going on and I think we have a few more sluggish years ahead.

Advertise Your Rollback *Update 1*

I last featured 2021 California #10 back in August 2009. It was a short sale attempt with the following details:

3 bed/2 bath 1,460 sq ft condo, 1958 building, "completely remodeled", $537/month HOA

Purchase History:
6/25/02 - $479,000
8/31/05 - $830,000

Listing History: 6/18/09 - $799,000
Reduced: 07/08/09 - to $769,000
Reduced: 07/21/09 - to $749,000
Reduced: 08/07/09 - to $699,000

SOLD: 1/22/10 - $649,000

This is a pretty deep rollback (advertised as 2003 in the listing description) and the sales price is $445/sq ft for a 3 bedroom condo in a decent location in 90403. However, the building is old and this is essentially an upgraded apartment...and the HOA is pretty hefty as well. So while I think the buyer got a pretty fair deal, we have to take the flaws into account when comparing this to other units in the area.

Also, if you missed it last time, the agent on this property left a comment on the blog which I've reproduced below:

Great discussion. I am the agent for this property. One of my clients brought this discussion to my attention. Let me clear the air. To all those who believe the westside market is tanking, you are correct. Once rates went back over 5%, the next 20% drop began. You can see it in the eyes of the buyers. This property is a short sale (see private remarks in MLS). We had to start at $799,000 to show the banks that we gave it a shot at a value, where a short sale would not be needed. Each price reduction and time on market continues to help us make a case to the lenders that we have done everything necessary to make them as much money back as possible. We finally have a few offers, after the reduction to $699,000. Counters are going out tomorrow. Whomever wins the bid, I can now stand strong against the bank to approve the short sale and accepted price, as this may be their last shot to sell the property. The second will get wiped out here AND the first will need to share the pain. No one is winning here, but with this scenario it was the strategy we needed document. You would not believe how naïve the banks are when it comes to approving these short sales. Again, we needed to prove to the banks that the market has shifted, even though they will tell us the property is worth more...now I feel we have taken that discussion off the table. If they do not accept the winning bid, then I wish the banks good luck... Time is money!

Ashland Box Ticker *Update 1*

I last featured 1710 Ashland back in August 2008.

To refresh, here are the details:

3 bed/2.5 bath 2,770 sq ft house, 7,000 sq ft lot, "renovated"/upgraded

Previous Purchase: 6/8/06 - $1,429,000

Listing History: 7/15/08 - $1,628,000
Reduced down to - $1,525,000 then expired

Re-List History: 12/2/09 - $1,395,000
SOLD: 1/26/10 - $1,383,375

Despite having been for sale so long ago and expiring, the new listing with its lower price got the job done very quickly as this was on the market for just 13 days before going into escrow.

As I said last time, this may look fine and dandy to you but I think looking at the 2003 purchase price is a bit troubling.

4/9/03 - $695,000

So given that prices are anywhere from 2004-2005 levels, I would add on roughly $100k to this value and then add on the remodel cost as well as a bit of "bubble premium" yet to deflate.

So, $800k + remodel + bubble premium = $1.383mm in this case.

I don't think that the price paid by this buyer is all that compelling.

The Bermuda Triangle of 90403

Address: 937 23rd - 90403

Details: 3 bed/3 bath 1,500 sq ft house, 8,000 sq ft lot, "updated in 2005"

Description: Seller is extremely motivated - price reduced! Traditional home, updated in 2005 with new baths & kitchen. 3bd/3ba main house plus guest house that is perfect for home office. Living area with volume ceiling and hardwood floors. 8000 sq ft flat very private lot on wonderful street. Extra large grassy fenced yard. Close to Montana Restaurants & Shops. Tenant Occupied, please do not disturb.

Listing History: 7/13/09 - $1,899,000
Reduced down to - $1,600,000

This house has been on the market for quite some time and I believe it has shown up on the MLS as going into and then falling out of escrow at least once. The photos from the listing make it look like the owners moved out and had it completely staged...but now the listing says "tenant occupied", so hard to know what is going on.



Address: 907 22nd - 90403

Details: 2 bed/1 bath 1,386 sq ft house, 8,000 sq ft lot, 1928 construction

Description: Charming 1920's Spanish on a large 8000 sq. ft. lot. Beautiful windows and an open floor plan flood the large living room, dining room and kitchen area with natural light. This 2 bedroom 1 bath home has wonderful detailing and hard wood floors throughout giving the home a special feeling. The expansive private backyard with mature fruit trees create a serene setting. Fantastic opportunity on a great Santa Monica street.

Previous Purchase: 3/21/00 - $740,000

Old Listing History: 5/11/09 - $1,575,000
Reduced down to - $1,475,000

Re-Listed: 1/14/10 - $1,475,000

So this old house has been on the market since May 2009 and they only cut the price by 6.3% during the entire 247 days that it was on market during the first listing. Then, to show just how delusional, greedy, (choose your own word) they are, they didn't even cut the price for the re-list. Great strategy if I must say so myself. Really showing the buyers that you are serious about selling and in touch with the market...




Finally, to complete the triangle, there is the disaster at 2320 Idaho. Here is a link to an old post I did on it.

To refresh, this is a flip attempt 4 bed/3 bath 2,080 sq ft house on a 4,743 sq ft lot. The house was purchased in 2006 by the flippers and was repainted and the interior redone.

Previous Purchase: 4/4/06 - $1,335,000

It has been on the market multiple times. First listing was back in early 2007 for $2.4mm. It has made its way down to a current asking price of $1.5mm and the description says "SHORT SALE, NO SHOWINGS UNTIL WE HAVE FURTHER INFORMATION FROM THE BANK. WAITING ON APPROVAL."

These three listings have been rotting on the MLS for quite some time despite the robust market conditions which I have continuously described here. I think these sellers (and bank) have made poor choices by not being more aggressive about selling. There was a lot of enthusiasm about the economy getting better, rates being low, real estate price firmness, etc for quite some time. There seems to be a bit more uncertainty these days and according to data covered on Calculated Risk, house prices may be coming back down en mass again.

Both of the first two sellers appear to have a lot of room to cut their prices and the third is a bank dragging its feet. The longer these sellers sit around and do nothing with their heads in the sand, the harder it will be for them to escape the "Bermuda Triangle of 90403". Thanks to the reader who gave the idea for this post.

What Will This Sell For?

Address: 933 Harvard - 90403

Details: 3 bed/2.5 bath 2,386 sq ft house, 7,875 sq ft lot, "remodeled"

Description: Very charming remodeled 30’s 1 sty Trad, in the desirable “College Sts” of SM. Meandering brick walk & inviting covered entry porch lead to pristine, well-detailed & inviting hm w/ wd flrs, mldgs, high clgs & ideal flr plan. FLR w/ FP & lg FDR. Cook’s kit/fam rm opens to lg grassy yd & detached office. 2 BR + den (which can be easily converted into 3rd BR) & 2½ BA. Spacious mstr w/ vaulted clg, French drs & beau Travertine bth. Quiet, tree-lined st in Franklin School dist. An absolute gem!

Previous Purchase: 12/18/98 - $710,000

Listing History: 1/14/10 - $1,849,000

I have not walked through this property but from the photos and description it looks nice and I think it will attract a lot of potential buyers. Solid location, good square footage, and it has been remodeled (I'm guessing after the 1998 purchase). The only real downside I see is that the den is being counted as a 3rd bedroom so it isn't really a 3 bedroom house...

To check valuation, I'm going to compound 4% (inflation + small premium) over 12 years and we get about $1,140,000 as our inflation adjusted value. Then, assuming the remodel was done after the 98 purchase, you need to add in whatever you think is fair for the remodel cost. From the photos it looks like kitchen and bathrooms were redone as well as other cosmetic items. I would need more info on what was done in order to figure out a value range.

Finally, since it is my opinion that prices still have downside remaining, you can add in a "bubble" component since I think current market prices still reflect some bubble. *note - this is a big reason why you may not want to buy yet unless you come across an exceptional value, because you are more likely to find properties with less and less bubble premium over the next year or two*

So roughly speaking, I think this is worth: $1.14mm + remodel value + "bubble premium".

I think it will have a tough time selling for close to the asking price, but the sellers should have room to cut and I think they won't have a hard time getting bids at lower levels. So, where does this sell at?

Jokers -- Fools -- Clowns *Update 2*

My last post on 933 25th was on January 12th.

I said the following: This spec house has now been on the market for over 2.5 months at an obscenely bloated price and they have not made any price cuts.

But see, a funny thing happened the very next day after my post went up...

Listing History: 10/22/09 - $4,488,000

Reduced: 01/13/10 - to $4,250,000


Are all these genius "investors", spec builders, real estate agents, etc taking their cues from a punk kid blogger or is the timing here just a coincidence?

This is a 5.3% price cut. I think they should have cut to below $4mm to show they were serious. The next cut will need to be bigger if they want to attract real interest.

Early 2005 Rollback - Patience Yields Better Deals

Address: 1010 California #2 - 90403

Details: 2 bed/2 bath 1,446 sq ft condo, 1988 building, $350/month HOA

Description: Great split level 2 bedroom, 2 bath in Prime Santa Monica location. Open kitchen w/ breakfast bar & granite counter tops, hardwood floors downstairs plantation shutters, fireplace, patio & large laundry room. Master suite upstairs w/ lots of light, double paned windows, walk-in closet & spa bath. SXS parking w/ extra storage. Close to beach, 3rd Street Promenade and many restaurants on Wilshire & Montana.

Previous Purchase: 3/16/05 - $725,000

Listing History: 7/2/09 - $759,000

SOLD: 1/13/10 - $735,000

This condo took longer to sell than most properties featured here recently. It took 99 days on market to finally go into escrow.

Nothing special here. $508/sq ft. Building isn't too old, location is pretty decent...rollback seems to be in line with many others recently...early 2005 isn't great, but satisfactory for the market where it is right now.

However, this price is worse than what someone just paid for unit #8 in the same building. We featured the REO sale of unit #8 just a few posts ago. It sold for a bit more but was substantially larger at 1,680 sq ft...it sold for $446/sq ft which beats out the $508/sq ft that someone just paid for unit #2.

But compared to unit #3 which sold in this building back on 7/30/09, the buyer of unit #2 just got a better deal. Unit #3 was 1,426 sq ft and sold for $779,000...that is $546/sq ft!!

So $446/sq ft for the REO which recently sold, $508/sq ft for the non-REO which just sold, and $546/sq ft for the unit which sold 6 months ago. I would imagine that prices will continue to be under pressure and reach the REO price in the future.

2002/2004 Rollback

Address: 1733 Sunset - 90405

Details: 3 bed/2 bath 1,281 sq ft house, 5,236 sq ft lot, 1962 construction

Description: This extremely charming home has a gourmet kitchen with granite, Miele and Sub Zero. Open floorplan between the family room, dining area, and kitchen. Bamboo floors throughout main living area. Master bedroom with french doors leading to a large wood deck. 2 additional bedrooms - one with a fireplace. There's a back patio, water feature, hot tub, and multi-level tropical garden with various palms and succulents. It is truly a tropical oasis!

Previous Purchase: 4/30/02 - $710,500

Listing History: 11/12/09 - $888,000

SOLD: 1/7/10 - $901,000

This house was only active for 8 days before going into escrow and eventually selling for over list price. The seller did a great job of pricing realistically.

The house itself looks decent, some minor improvements here and there, a few interesting features (looks like a cool deck)...but the biggest issue for me would be the fact that it appears to be near Penmar and thus close to the flight path of the airport. You guys know that area better than me so maybe the airport noise wouldn't be too horrendous in this location...?

Anyway, if we inflation adjust the 2002 price using a 3% inflation rate, we get almost $900k. Hey, that's what the buyer here just paid! Some would argue that the early 2002 price was already somewhat bubbly but I don't think it is a completely unsafe reference point. You've just got to realize it isn't rock bottom pricing to start from.

The next way to look at the rollback would be to try and figure out what type of a nominal rollback this is. Start with $710k back in early 2002 and figure 10-15% annual appreciation. Let's split the difference and use 12.5%/year. If you compound that over two years you get $900k. So you could then say that the buyer just got roughly an early 2004 rollback.

So this looks like an inflation adjusted 2002 rollback and a nominal 2004 rollback. Not too shabby. This is why I think you can start to poke around and find some selected spots of value in the market. This house isn't going to fall to $500k or something like that. I would be pretty surprised to see something like this get into the $7s...so maybe 10% downside left over a few years max? It might have some more downside, but as I've said before, it is likely more of a slower trickle which lasts another few years rather than some dramatic gap down. I'm not arguing for the chance of any appreciation any time soon, but I don't think this is a terrible buy right here at this price. Am I being too optimistic?

Jokers -- Fools -- Clowns *Update 1*

I last featured 933 25th back in October 2009.

To refresh, it is a massive, 7,100 sq ft (including fully finished basement) spec house which we all know is massively overpriced.

Lot Purchase: 8/1/07 - $1,950,000 (included plans + permits)

Listing History: 10/22/09 - $4,488,000

This spec house has now been on the market for over 2.5 months at an obscenely bloated price and they have not made any price cuts. That's all fine and dandy and I guess they can try and pretend like they have a shot at getting over $4mm....until this happened.

Address: 1122 Stanford - 90403

Details: 6 bed/7.5 bath ??? sq ft new spec house, 8,500 sq ft lot

Description: New Construction! 6 BD, 7 ½ BA. Enter thru form foyer w/skylight, leading to FLR w/fab stone fp. Hw flrs, moldings & arched entryways thruout. FDR. Gourmet Kit w/Viking appliances, granite counters & bkfst area. FR opns to both an interior courtyard/patio w/BBQ & an outdoor fp in the bkyd, on stone patio. MD’s & gst qtrs on main flr. 3BD stes up w/custom closets & lg bonus area great for a lib, den or ofc w/powder. Breathtaking mstr w/loft, stone fp, his/hers walk-in closets, balc & stunning BA.

Listing History: 8/28/09 - $3,588,000
Reduced to - $3,395,000

SOLD: 1/5/10 - $2,875,000

I do not know the interior square footage of this property but I suspect it is less than 933 25th. However, it is in a similar location, on a similar sized lot (actually 150 sq ft larger than 933 25th), has the same number of bedrooms but 1.5 MORE bathrooms (but really, how much crapping can you do?).

These houses look pretty similar to me. 933 25th might have some more high end finishes and I'm guessing has more interior square footage...but they are both huge spec houses and 1122 Stanford wins on lot size and bathrooms.

Yet...Stanford just sold for $1,613,000 LESS than what 25th is currently asking.

25th needs to cut its price by more than $1mm to be realistic. Get on it; those holding costs have got to be pretty rough.

EDIT -- the Stanford location is pretty close to Wilshire and there should be a fair discount for that fact vs the 25th house. However, the 25th still is massively overpriced and needs a large price cut.

"$1,000 selling agent bonus" REO

Address: 1010 California #8 - 90403

Details: 2 bed/2 bath 1,680 sq ft townhouse, 1988 construction, $350/month HOA, foreclosure

Description: Front corner unit. 2 bedrooms and 2 baths with loft. Walk in closet and spa tub. Wood burning fireplace. Skylights and Recessed lighting. This property is OCCUPIED. If property is placed under contract within the first 30 days of listing a $1,000 selling agent bonus will be paid. A $500 selling agent bonus from day 31 to day 90 will be paid. No incentive after day 91. For financing and showings please see MLS private remarks.

Previous Purchase: 7/29/05 - $975,000

JP Morgan "bank buyback": 5/22/09 - $879,877

Listing History: 11/4/09 - $760,000

SOLD: 1/8/10 - $750,000

First off, I don't think the "occupied" status of the unit is significant because the building is new enough that it should not be subject to rent control. Worst case, the buyer here might have to let the tenants lease expire before kicking them out if they want to live in it themselves.

This property was active for just 13 days before going into escrow. That means some agent made and extra $1,000! Hooray!...although if the lender was paying any attention, they would know that simply by listing this pretty decently located property at any sort of reasonable rollback price, they would likely have little problem selling it anyway. But regardless, it is nice to see lenders actually demonstrating some sort of will to get rid of the REO on their books in a timely fashion. The faster they move the foreclosures through the pipeline, the sooner we get through all this mess and back to some sort of normal market (and economy).

At first glance you might think this to be a pretty deep rollback, but while I don't have any reason to think fraud was involved, the 2005 price seems just a bit too high. Maybe it was just a very poor purchase decision by that buyer. The new buyer just paid 23% less than the mid 2005 price. In square footage terms, they paid $446/sq ft. Not bad, especially considering this isn't some 1950 apartment conversion building.

After doing a quick search on this blog, I found that I had featured a unit in this building before (unit #3). You can see the post here. Unit #3 is also a 2 bed/2 bath but is smaller at only 1,426 sq ft. Its previous purchase was in February 2004 for $680,000 and then it sold recently in July 2009 for $779,000.

To adjust for the square footage difference we can see that #3 sold for $546/sq ft about 6 months ago. Hey, that is $100/sq ft more than the buyer of #10 just paid. The buyer of #10 saved over 18% by waiting a bit longer and buying from the bank.

One final way to look at the price on #10 is to observe the earlier sale price of $470,000 that took place on 12/17/99. If you assume 3% inflation plus a 1% SM is special premium and use 10 years of compounding, you get to an inflation adjusted price of $696,000. Using this, You could argue they just overpaid by $54,000 (or roughly 8%). But hey, that is a lot better than buying at the peak and losing 25-35%! This is why I have said that I think you can start poking around and searching for value in the market. I think there is still some downside to go, but on select properties, there probably isn't a huge amount left.

This Won't End Well *Update 1*

Back in July 2009 I featured 3409 Pearl and I said that it was a disaster in the making.

This is a small house on a small lot in a bad location.

Previous Purchases:

03/03/2008:	$1,055,000
12/16/2005:	$845,000
12/12/2003:	$655,000

Listing History: 6/23/09 - $1,149,000
Reduced several times to - $799,000

The description for the property now says "SHORT SALE" at the beginning.

It appears that this went "looking for backup" as of 12/29/09. I'm interested to see where this actually sells at (if the short sale goes through). While this was obviously way overpriced when it was first listed, it will be interesting to see if more than one fool was attracted by the "big" price cut down to $799,000. Maybe the bank thought they could attract a bidding war if they got the price down enough...or maybe buyers are actually getting smarter and this will close at or below the $799k list price.

Finally...A Real Rollback (in the canyon)

Address: 511 West Rustic - 90402 (canyon)

Details: 3 bed/3 bath 2,264 sq ft house, 6,011 sq ft lot, foreclosure

Description: Wow!!! Hurry before it sells. We have multiple offers. Bank Owned Foreclosed property, NOT NOT a Short Sale. This stunning home is perched in the canyons of the City of Santa Monica within walking distance of the ocean and the world renown lifestyle that PCH avails you. Features: Immaculate living space. Soaring ceilings with recessed lighting and a cozy fireplace accent the spacious living room. Natural light bathes the well appointed Chef's kitchen with its abundant cabinets, tile floor, granite counters and backsplash. The huge master suite has a very romantic fireplace, walk-in closet, soothing spa tub, stall shower and access to the backyard. Deep chocolate distressed oak hardwood floors. Central heat & air. Unique and desirable block with a creek running along the front. Award winning Canyon Elementary School. THERE IS A $75.00 BUYER PAID DOC FEE PAID AT CLOSING.

Purchase History:
9/20/04 - $1,350,000
6/20/01 - $965,000

REO Listing History: 8/9/09 - $1,571,900
Reduced at some point down to - $1,199,999

SOLD: 12/15/09 - $1,150,000

The bank "buyback" took place on 7/20/09 for $1,313,424. It looks like the bank in this case was Deutsche Bank.

This REO sat on the MLS for 130 days before going into escrow and the bank had to cut the price down below the level which they foreclosed at. You gotta love the "hurry before it sells" line in the description. When are agents going to realize that smart buyers are actually more likely to avoid properties with descriptions like that?

Anyhow, I think this example illustrates my point about doing your homework and how right now might not be a terrible time to buy if you can find the ever elusive good deal. I admit you can't find rollbacks this deep in actual Santa Monica right now, but I think this is an example of weakness to come in the intermediate term. Rather than sit on the sidelines, this buyer picked through the rubble and got a really solid rollback.

Bailing Builders = 2005 Rollback *Update 2*

I last featured 819 Pier back in June 2009. The property was being marketed as a short sale for quite some time.

Previous Purchase: 3/2/05 - $711,000

Listing History: 4/25/08 - $1,085,000
Reduced: 06/04/08 - to $995,000
Reduced: 07/16/08 - to $949,000
Reduced: 09/11/08 - to $895,000
Reduced: 09/19/08 - to $849,000
Reduced: 10/15/08 - to $749,000
Reduced: 10/28/08 - to $695,000
Reduced: 11/14/08 - to $645,000
Reduced: 01/06/09 - to $625,000
Reduced: 04/02/09 - to $599,000
Reduced down to - $550,000

SOLD: 12/18/09 - $560,000

Before you look at this and think it is a huge rollback, it is important to look at the purchases made on this before 2005.

3/9/04 - $525,000
11/7/02 - $406,000

The sale price increased by almost $200K in the year between 2004 and 2005...fraud? really hot market? all of the above?

But no matter how you look at it, someone just bought this at a late 2004/early 2005 price. Not all that great in my book.

Rollback Dispersion

Address: 2912 11th #3 - 90405

Details: 2 bed/1.5 bath 900 sq ft townhouse, 1963 building, $210/month HOA

Description: Wonderful contemporary 2-sty townhouse (no one above) in great ocean park neighborhood. Open living area, great patio with gas line for BBQ, plantation shutters, skylight, Casablanca ceiling fans in each room. Custom closets in both bedrooms, spa tub, laundry inside unit, one garage space with lots of extra storage. Easy street parking. Quiet Ocean Park neighborhood, walk to Whole Foods, Main St., Beach. Must see!

Previous Purchase: 4/21/06 - $579,000


Listing History: 10/16/09 - $549,000

SOLD: 12/15/09 - $525,000

This unit went into escrow after being active for just 22 days. I would call this an early/mid 2005 rollback price.




Address: 415 Marine - 90405

Details: 3 bed/2 bath 1,654 sq ft house on a 5,993 sq ft lot + guesthouse, 1955 construction

Description: Ready to Move! Modern beach property on large lush landscaped lot. Super privacy and charm. 2 car detached garage/storage at Marine Street. Stairs to level new bermuda lawn, mature trees, roof deck over garage with filtered SouthEast views. Sharp Main House has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, fireplace, skylights, Sub Zero/Dacor/GE appliances, central heating, W/D. Vast private level backyard with new lawn and bonus detached Guest House + 3/4 bath. 6 blocks to sand! Zoned OP2; big upside, check w/city

Purchase History:
12/8/06 - $1,400,000
4/9/03 - $848,000

Listing History: 8/19/09 - $1,488,000
Reduced down to $1,398,000

SOLD: 12/8/09 - $1,332,000

This house took a while to sell and was active for 75 days before going into escrow. This sale price looks like an early 2006 rollback.


Address: 520 Montana #301 - 90403

Details: 2 bed/2 bath 1,372 sq ft condo, 1964 building, $353/month HOA

Description: Beautiful top floor, corner unit steps away from Montana shops/restaurants, 3rd Street Promenade, and the ocean. Walls of glass provide beautiful street and treetop views and lots of light. Large, open living room and dining area with hardwood floors. Large balcony provides a perfect spot to sip your morning coffee. 2 spacious bedrooms. Gas fireplace in living room. Laundry hookups in unit. 2 separate parking spaces.

Purchase History:
6/16/03 - $555,000
10/20/99 - $398,000

Listing History: 11/18/09 - $765,000

SOLD: 12/22/09 - $775,000

This condo went into escrow for above list price after being active for just 5 days. I think this type of example speaks to the froth of the market currently. Giving 12% annual appreciation, this is roughly a mid 2006 price that someone just paid.



Address: 1447 Stanford #D - 90404

Details: 2 bed/1.75 bath 1,030 sq ft condo, 1967 building, $244/month HOA

Description: Spacious 2-Bdrm 1 ¾ bath turnkey condo. Open, well laid out flr plan w/ natural light & courtyard views. A cook's kitchen featuring stainless appliances, granite counters, & tons of cabinetry and tile floors. Bthrms are beautifully tiled & have tasteful finishes. Bamboo floors in large living room. Laundry in unit plus ample storage & closet space. . Beautiful Plantation shutters throughout. Large patio & prvt 1-car garage w/extra storage. Close to beach, shops, & Farmers Market.

Previous Purchase: 7/6/05 - $589,000

Listing History: 9/8/09 - $549,000

SOLD: 12/23/09 - $508,000

This condo took 84 days to go into escrow and represents a far superior rollback to the examples above. I would have to guess that this is somewhere in the early 2004 rollback range.

We are now entering the "2010-2012" time period where I have been thinking that buying property is going to make sense in Santa Monica. The trick of course is to do your homework and not overpay like the people currently buying 2006 priced merchandise. I think prices will generally stay flat at best over the next few years but most likely decline somewhat...so there is no rush to buy something that isn't priced attractively.