90403 Active SFR Rollbacks

Address: 940 Centinela - 90403

Details: 2 bed/1.75 bath 1,313 sq ft house, 9,559 sq ft lot, 1947 construction, "updated kitchen"

Description: Located on a large, rare SM view lot, this light and bright open floor plan home embraces the site with large windows & French doors. The updated kitchen opens to a family room, which could be converted to a third bedroom. Master bedroom features bath with granite & steam shower. Many features including hardwood floors, fireplace in the living room, lush landscaping in the rear yard with exotic trees & plants. Franklin Elementary. Peaceful and serene. Live in it as is or build your dream home.

Previous Purchase: 7/29/05 - $1,450,000

Listing History: 4/26/10 - $1,495,000

Based on what I have been seeing on recently closed transactions, I think mid 2005 or later rollbacks are not very good deals, early 2005/late 2004 are fair deals, and better than late 2004 are good deals. In this case, they are asking in the mid/late 2005 range so this does not look like a very good deal to me. However, there may be some minor upgrades (kitchen, etc?) which might have been done since the last purchase which you may care to adjust for. I don't believe they would be all that material but I don't have all the facts and my opinion may also be different than yours. I think they are about $100k high on the ask, but we'll see...



Address: 2215 California - 90403

Details: 3 bed/3 bath 1,774 sq ft house, 5,060 sq ft lot, "updated"

Description: This unique architectural is centrally located in Franklin school district. High vaulted ceilings, maple floors and cabinets, updated master bath. Light and open floor plan with Guest room and bath above garage. Courtyard surrounded by giant Bamboo. Short distance to schools, Whole Foods, park and chic Montana Ave

Previous Purchase: 10/28/03 - $1,400,000

Listing History: 4/21/10 - $1,495,000

Here we've got what looks like a mid 2004 asking price (or maybe even a touch better). I would imagine that this will attract a fair amount of interest and I would expect this to sell fairly quickly near the asking price.

Another 2004 Rollback In 90402 *Update 3*

I last featured 209 Euclid in February 2010.

To refresh...Details: 5 bed/6 bath 6,859 sq ft house, 7,500 sq ft lot, 2004 construction

Previous Purchase: 8/13/04 - $3,950,000

Listing History: 2/5/09 - $4,400,000
Reduced: 04/02/09 - to $3,999,000
Reduced: 06/11/09 - to $3,899,000
Reduced: 07/31/09 - to $3,800,000

Re-Listed: 2/23/10 - $3,795,000

SOLD: 4/23/10 - $3,690,000

...BUT WAIT...now in the description of the property we find the following disclosure:

Buyer is a real estate broker, sales price adjusted by buyer's commission.

I don't work in the business but to me this means that rather than pay out any commission to the buyer's broker (since the buyer is representing him or herself), the seller is lowering the sales price. So to find the true sales price we need to bump the price up by a bit (2.5% or so of the "true sales price").

ADJUSTED SALES PRICE ~ $3,785,000

As I have said before, I think this segment of the market offers the most relative value because there isn't any bogus government money or first time buyer credits, etc in this segment of the market. This is well into 2004 territory.

247 20th -- 90402 Foreclosure *Update 1*

I last featured 247 20th back in February 2010.

It is a 3 bed/3 bath 2,676 sq ft house on a 8,940 sq ft lot.

Previous Purchase: 4/13/03 - $1,500,015

Bank Buyback (US Bancorp): 4/21/09 - $1,570,210

REO Listing: 2/5/10 - $1,739,000

SOLD: 4/6/10 - $1,860,000


I had previously suggested that the asking price was probably about a 2004 rollback. The sale ended up taking place well above the asking price so this is well into 2005 territory.

Go South...Still Looking Like 2004 Prices

Address: 2408 34th #5 - 90405

Details: 2 bed/2.5 bath 1,749 sq ft townhouse, 1981 construction, $400 HOA

Description: Soaring ceilings, walls for artwork, skylights, maple wood flrs. Gourmet chef’s kitchen w/ stone countertops, glass tile details, stainless appliances & wine cooler. large patio, 2 bedrm, 2.5 bath, office loft w/ closet, could be 3rd bedrm. Bonus rm off garage for extra storage/fitness room. Master bedroom with extra high ceilings, fireplace, walk in closet & roof deck for romantic evening under the stars. Close to schools, shops & Santa Monica newest gourmet restaurants. Your Zen abode.

Previous Purchase: 9/15/04 - $713,500

Listing History: 1/5/10 - $749,000

SOLD: 4/1/10 - $710,000

Here is another example of a solid 2004 rollback. I am highlighting these because they happen be showing prices back into 2004 territory. Not too long ago it seemed like most people were getting overly excited about low rates and incentives and were subsequently bidding units like these well into 2005 territory. We'll see how things shake out.

Roll It Back To 2004

Address: 1453 Stanford #E - 90404

Details: 3 bed/2.75 bath 1,260 sq ft condo, 1963 building, $275/month HOA, "updated"

Description: Wonderful single level condo in a great courtyard building. Bright and beautiful updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances and granite counter tops. Elegant living room with wood burning fireplace, lovely master suite and large secondary bedrooms. Wood floors, tastefully finished bathrooms, crown moldings and great closet space. Inside laundry, two charming patios and private one car garage with extra storage. Don’t miss this fantastic Santa Monica condo close to the beach, shopping and restaurants.

Previous Purchase: 4/28/05 - $661,500

Listing History: 2/17/10 - $599,000

SOLD: 4/6/10 - $580,000

I'm looking for a little more weakness in the market, especially in this segment.

26th and Wilshire...Another One *Update 1*

I last featured 1141 26th #D all the way back in January 2008. It is a 1 bed/1 bath 640 sq ft condo near 26th and Wilshire. $285/month HOA, "remodeled bathroom".

Previous Purchase: 5/6/05 - $477,000

Listing History: 10/8/07 - $499,000
Reduced: 01/04/08 - to $465,000
Increased: 01/07/08 - to $469,000

Re-Listed: 8/24/09 - $449,000
Reduced down to - $429,000

SOLD: 4/2/10 - $421,000

My listing history info is probably not complete since it may have been re-listed in 2008 and I don't have a record of it. But here we see a unit which was essentially for sale from late 2007 until now. Probably about a mid-2004 rollback, although I don't know when the bathroom re-do was completed and you could also sort of adjust for the tax credit too.

...But here is where things get interesting. I also saw that a similar unit in the same complex just sold about 2 weeks after the unit above did. It was a foreclosure. Check this out.


Address: 1137 26th #A - 90403

Details: 1 bed/1 bath 630 sq ft condo, $285 HOA, REO

Description: Corporate owned. North of Wilshire.Rear courtyard unit that has been upgraded with crown mouldings and hardwood floors. Unit has 1 car garage with storage. Property being sold in its current as-is condition with no warranties or guarantees neither implied nor expressed by seller and or their agents. All offers to include current proof of funds, current letter of prequalification and current earnest money deposit, W-9 from selling agents Brokerage and must be written on current car contract. Property may or may not qualify FHA, VA, 203K ***Please see private remarks***

Purchase History:
8/23/04 - $395,000
4/17/07 - $455,000

Bank Buyback (JPMorgan): 1/27/10 - $347,650

REO Listing History: 2/23/10 - $371,250

SOLD: 4/16/10 - $350,000

Wow! This just sold for $71K less than the first unit I showed. That is a discount of 17% for what looks like a very similar unit (10 sq ft less). Also, look at the previous sale history for this unit. This looks like a solid 2003 rollback. At this purchase price, your interest and property taxes come to about $1,750/month. Add on HOA fees and you are just over $2,000/month. Not quite at rental parity but if you figure in the tax break you probably get somewhat close...So maybe some more downside here but probably not a ton.

While I was doing this post I thought I ought to ask readers if they still want to see coverage of 1 bedroom condos. It is not a segment of the market which I think I will personally ever get involved in and I think someone made a comment recently which went along the lines of "what is the point of buying a 1 bedroom when there is rent control" (which I somewhat but not completely agree with). So I guess I'm just interested to hear from the readers. Leave comments or e-mail me if you want.

Mid-2003 Short Sale Attempt

Address: 938 Lincoln #4 - 90403

Details: 2 bed/3 bath 2,025 sq ft townhouse, 2001 or 2003 construction (listing says one thing and description says another), $275 HOA, short sale

Description: “Fabulous townhouse built in 2003 by William Dale Brantley. Located in the heart of Santa Monica, featuring 2 Bedrooms, 2.5 baths with mezzanine. Spacious multilevel design, soaring ceilings, dramatic skylights. State of the art kitchen, with breakfast area. Open living and dining rooms, hardwood floors. Private roof deck, two large patios for entertaining, 2 car garage with direct access.”

Previous Purchase: 8/1/03 - $889,000

Listing History: 4/12/10 - $879,000

At this asking price, we are looking at a mid-2003 rollback for what looks like a nice townhouse which is less than 10 years old and is north of Wilshire. I am not a huge fan of the location however as Lincoln can be a busier street with buses so there ought to be some location discount here for sure. That being said, this is priced at $434/sq ft...

I would expect this to generate a fair amount of interest.

Specs Bailing *Update 2*

I last featured 444 10th back in early February 2010.

Previous Purchase: 6/6/07 - $2,950,000

Listing History: 11/13/08 - $3,130,000

Re-Listed: 1/26/10 - $2,800,000

SOLD: 4/2/10 - $2,500,000

This is a large lot (11,250 sq ft) and it came with building plans...it sold for a bit more than I thought but good to see this cleared off the market. A loss of $450k + holding costs + plan costs, etc...

New Wood Floors -- 1 Bedroom Rollbacks North to South

Address: 848 Euclid #A - 90403

Details: 1 bed/1 bath 620 sq ft condo, 1953 building, $212 HOA, "remodeled with wood floors"

Description: Special top floor unit with windows on three sides. Minutes to Montana Ave. Recently remodeled with wood floors, upgraded kitchen, recessed lighting. Laundry in unit. Pretty landscaped grounds.

Purchase History:
9/15/06 - $533,000
2/23/05 - $440,000
9/18/98 - $200,000

Listing History: 11/23/09 - $475,000

SOLD: 3/26/10 - $450,000

Here is a one bedroom unit which is small (620 sq ft) but in a good location. The "remodel" is recent so you are getting the upgrades for free and someone just paid an early 2005 price.


Address: 302 Ashland #102 - 90405

Details: 1 bed/1 bath 660 sq ft condo, 1971 building, $275 HOA, "gleaming wood floors"

Description: Gleaming wood floors (installed 2010), smooth ceilings and remodeled bathroom highlight the many features of this great one-bedroom condo. Good-sized living room w/fireplace & balcony overlook the lovely, tree-lined street. Kitchen opens to living, dining. Good closet space. HOA would allow installation of washer/dryer in unit. Location, location, location! Just two blocks from Main Street in Ocean Park, Santa Monica!

Previous Purchase: 6/24/04 - $397,000

Listing History: 1/21/10 - $429,000

SOLD: 3/29/10 - $412,000

This is a similar sized 1 bedroom condo and it also has new wood floors which you are essentially getting for free while paying a late 2004 price.

Franklin School Adjacent *Update 1*

I last featured 838 25th back in early March and I said that I thought it would sell quickly. We then learned that we were correct to think that the price on it seemed a bit low as the property was being advertised in a way where you needed to bid at least $100k over asking to have a shot at getting it...This was confirmed by multiple readers.

Listing History: 2/23/10 - $1,195,000

SOLD: 3/31/10 - $1,385,000

I'm not going to argue that this level of purchase price represents a good deal (as I have for other properties)...but I don't think you are ever buying this much below $1mm -- even on a worst case type scenario for the economy. Read the top of this blog again...we thought values would decline and they did. But you aren't buying a SFR in a good location north of Wilshire for dirt cheap now or ever. For almost $1.4mm you can buy a house cash and retire in a low cost of living area...or you can live the dream here and sport a 2 bedroom house from 1940.

I think it is always good to take a step back and do a reality check. Also, seeing entry level type stuff like this sell at this price in 90403 makes me more convinced that on a relative value basis, the best bang for the buck right now is the above $2mm market in 90402. Maybe I'll expand upon that in future posts.

Hefty REO Rollback

Address: 1532 Berkeley #7 - 90404

Details: 2 bed/2 bath 924 sq ft condo, 1971 building, $190/month HOA, REO

Description: REO/ Lender Owned! Reduced $20,000! Updated Corner upper rear end unit with carport parking under it, and only one side shared wall with other unit. Excellent condition unit with balcony, hardwood floor. It is easy to be shown anytime.

Previous Purchase: 9/12/05 - $553,000


Listing History: 12/1/09 - $474,900
Reduced down to - $439,900

SOLD: 3/30/10 - $435,000

This is a pretty substantial rollback. It is $118,000 less than the 2005 price (a 21% discount). However, since this unit appreciated at greater than 20%/year over the 2001-2005 period, it appears to be only a mid 2004 rollback or so.

For those asking about the possibility of prices rolling back to 2001 values, we just so happen to have a previous purchase on this property which took place on 8/16/01 for $257,000.

To get there on a nominal basis, we would need another 41% decline. The chance of that happening is almost zero in my opinion. However, if we use a 3% inflation rate on the 2001 price and compound it over 8.5 years, we get to an inflation adjusted 2001 rollback target of about $330,000 which is about $100k less than what this just sold for. In my opinion, it is highly unlikely that we will see another six figures of depreciation on this unit. This unit could fall in value some more over the next few years, but I think a lot of the depreciation has been taken care of already. Much of the savings you might expect to get on this unit if you were to buy it a year or two down the line might be wiped out by higher mortgage rates (assuming you are financing and not paying in cash).