I started this blog over 5 years ago. A lot has happened over the past 5 years but I am increasingly convinced that this blog and "bubble blogs" as a whole are largely irrelevant now. Yes there is still "uncertainty", but there always is. The recovery may be choppy at times but I think it is pretty obvious that we are well into recovery territory. At this rate I won't be surprised to see quality westside properties at or very near all time highs over the next year or two.
Real estate is boring now, and that's a good thing. But it also means less blogging. I'm not ready to pull the plug just yet, but from now through the end of the year I anticipate less posting. There is practically no inventory and activity slows dramatically during this time of year so I don't think there will be any material insights to be gleaned from the market over the next quarter or so.
See you guys next year.
Thanks for all your insights. Like you, I too just bought a house on the west side after sitting on the sidelines with my cash wondering when the craziness would end.
ReplyDeleteI've really enjoyed reading your posts over the years. I look forward to reading more if or when things get crazy again.
Thanks for all the fine work
ReplyDeleteGreat blog. I also bought in SM (last spring), and have really enjoyed your blog. Thanks again and best of luck!
ReplyDeleteR.I.P.
ReplyDeleteThanks for everything
ReplyDeleteIf any readers want to continue the discussion pls create a blog. We need to keep discussing santa monica
you really have created a community here.. thanks warchest! will miss reading!
ReplyDeleteWarchest, thank you - you did a real service. People that took your advice and AVOIDED buying back in early 2007 had the chance to instead buy 20% cheaper.
ReplyDeleteyou literally saved many of your readers 20% and you should take a bow
ignore the haters.
I have been visiting your blog since the begining. Finally bought in Sunset Park in 2010. Thx for the quality blog!
ReplyDeleteI have heard from various sources that there is less inventory in the 90402 right now that at any point in the past 20 years
ReplyDeleteI find this hard to believe.
Anyone who follows the market carefully --- any comments ?
Confirmed. Inventory in the 90402 is at a ~60 year low. Data available on RAND Corp website.
ReplyDeleteI agree
ReplyDeleteLink from RAND please?
ReplyDeleteAnother good election outcome. Prices continue to rise in the 90402
ReplyDeleteSome recent sales cracking the $2 million mark in Sunset Park. Granted, these are very nice, large, newer homes, but still these seem like record setting prices for that area.
ReplyDeleteYou are correct. Look at the stats. very few neighborhoods in Southern California have exceeded their all time highs, but included in the list is Manhattan Beach and Sunset Park
ReplyDeleteSunset park rising faster than Franklin 90402.... Exact same thing is happening in manhattan with the meat packing district rising faster than park avenue..
ReplyDeleteBut latesummer promised me a nice house in sunset park for 400K.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteA nasty set of facts you're probably not paying attention to:
•From 1990-2000 GDP advanced by an average of 4.80% annually. Debt advanced by 7.51% annually.
•From 2000-2010 GDP advanced by an average of 4.13% annually. Debt advanced by 6.56% annually.
•From 2010 onward GDP advanced by 3.93% annually. Debt advanced by 0.93% annually.
Despite the Federal Government and Federal Reserve's best efforts to "re-ignite animal spirits" the expansion of leverage -- that is, debt -- in the economy has factually failed and is factually contracting against GDP.
The S&P went from about 100 to 1500 and the Dow from 1,000 to 14,000 predicated on this leverage expansion over the space of 30 years. That leverage expansion has ceased despite the stated intent and policy of Ben Bernanke to force Seniors and others into the market -- and to make them acquire more leverage.
Likewise, so-called "earnings expansion" was actually predicated on business leverage, and that underlay most of this "gain."
Finally, and most-ominously, tax receipts went up at a dramatic rate due to the same expansion of leverage. This is the "secret" of the so-called "Laffer Curve" (and is about to be exposed as the "driving force" as it reverses and renders people like Larry Kudlow, one of the curve's loudest apologists, disgraced fools.)
When the paradigm shifts so do the results.
The market is at least 50% overvalued, and may be overvalued by 80%.
So is land and so are houses.
Beware. Your ETF call was the peak of the market and the best "sell" signal I've seen since late 2007. Keep it up War Chest.
Ohhhh, yeah we better all "beware". How are prices doing on the westside? How is inventory?
ReplyDeleteThis blog is about local housing. I see firm demand and firm prices still. ETFs and stocks jiggle around in the short term, but my point was that obviously a massive shift has taken place and we are in recovery mode. Hell, I even said "I think there could be a near term pullback after this huge run".
Take your paranoia somewhere else. Housing bottomed. Get over it. Back to sleep for now.
I agree with you WarChest.
ReplyDeleteWe need more coverage here of individual houses. I think each time we discuss an individual house it will be clear that prices are rock hard right now.... not quite back at peak....
Where's your mea culpa post stating that your post with bernanke's pic top ticked the market. You decided to stop posting right as the economy continues it's downward trajectory to save face.
ReplyDeleteHe doesn't discuss individual houses because every house can be countered with another that shows a negative return
LS 2009 - we all know its you...
DeleteSorry you got your ass kicked so badly. Enjoy your rental for life...
More individual houss please. No more snark please. Houses
ReplyDelete