Now What? Almost Back To Even

Address: 1208 Sunset - 90405

Details: 4 bed/4 bath 2,830 sq ft house on a 6,984 sq ft lot

Description: Sun filled spacious contemporary family home. Great Sunset Park view street. Open plan living dining and family rooms, with fireplace and hardwood floors. Cook's kitchen with center island and breakfast area French doors from kitchen and dining room to large pergola covered decks and back yard. Private master with treetop and city vista views. Two walk in closets and separate tub and shower stall. All 3 additional bedrooms are en suite. Tall hedges and mature trees afford perfect privacy for the yard. Lots and lots of storage and 2 car garage. Great light, great flow, great condition. Move in and enjoy the summer in Santa Monica. E.Z. commute or cycle to Main Street and the beach. Open Sunday from 2 to 5pm and Tuesday from 11am to 2pm. A MUST SEE. 

Previous Purchase: 2/15/07 - $1,695,000

Listing History: 6/8/12 - $1,695,000

SOLD: 8/28/12 - $1,620,000

This sale represents a decline of 4.4% from the previous purchase. So once again, prices are not back to previous highs but they aren't far off. Summer is now over though and I expect the market to get quiet, boring, and to not show much positive momentum for the rest of the year. 

Watch Out - Better Headlines Are Coming *Update 2*

As I and the rest of the realists predicted, the housing headlines have gotten better.

Today we got the Case-Shiller data which showed a year-over-year increase in prices for the first time since 2010 (note that the 2010 increase was related to the temporary tax credit).

Of course, the data lags. If you were actually paying attention to things on the ground (or reading this blog) you would have seen this coming for some time.

Here is a good post from Calculated Risk that you should read about this data. Bulls shouldn't get overly excited though as Bill notes: No one should expect the strong price increases to continue...On a Seasonally Adjusted (SA) basis, the Composite 20 index was up 0.9%. That is a 11% annualized rate - and that will not continue.

Of course, the fact that prices are unlikely to increase at this pace going forward is far from saying there will be any material decline or give back of gains.

Not Back To Even

Address: 1347 Hill - 90405

Details: 4 bed/3 bath 2,115 sq ft house on a 6,990 sq ft lot

Description: Live the classic Santa Monica lifestyle in this comfortable two story remodeled home great for entertaining friends and family. A white picket fence, front garden and formal entry instantly greet you. Perfectly situated on a crest, in one of the best parts of Sunset Park, this hilltop house has treetop and Pacific views from the Master bedroom rooftop deck. This home's expansive lot and sensible floor plan features a Master Suite plus an additional bedroom and bath upstairs and two bedrooms and bath downstairs, some wood floors, sprawling yard with abundant fruit trees, spacious open kitchen, 2 car garage plus carport, security system, separate Bonus Room/Office Space with French doors, tons of natural light and best of all magical ocean breezes.

Previous Purchase: 8/24/07 - $1,715,000

Listing History: 7/16/12 - $1,499,000

SOLD: 8/21/12 - $1,590,000

This sale represents a decline of 7.3% from the 2007 price. I don't think anyone is happy about taking a loss but as a percentage, this isn't huge. Prices are certainly still down and we haven't rebounded to the point where the bubble buyers are back to even but the sky isn't falling.

Culver City -- Carlson Park Still Cookin'

Address: 4331 Mentone Ave - 90232

Details: 3 bed/2 bath 1,702 sq ft house on a 6,778 sq ft lot

Description: Nestled within the deepest and prettiest part of highly desirable Carlson Park. This beautiful traditional home is located in one of Culver City's most sought after neighborhoods! Located within walking distance to downtown Culver City, parks & Sony studios. Meticulously maintained by original home owner. This one of a kind property has multiple upgrades that include central air & heat, copper plumbing, hardwood floors throughout, crown molding, recessed lighting, plantation shutters, new double-paned windows, built-in speakers, solid core doors, gas fireplace in spacious living room, ceiling fans throughout, alarm system, newer master suite w/ large walk-in closet, vanity, and remodeled master bathroom with new tile floor & Bidet. Lots of storage space throughout. Large lot with a spacious, and grassy backyard and attached 2-car garage. Don't miss this amazing property!

Listing History: 5/31/12 - $849,000

SOLD: 8/17/12 - $885,000

This property went into escrow after 10 days. This is what is happening in my hood this year. Properties don't need to be special to elicit a ton of interest as long as they are well located. I don't know exactly what a peak price would be on this but I think it would have been a bit north of $900k. Pretty amazing how resilient values have been as they aren't down much for the prime locations.

I also get a kick out of these situations where an original owner from 50+ years ago (60 years in this case) is the seller. "Oh Warchest, the demographic headwind, blah, blah". Please.

Cry Me a River, Bears *Update 1*

I last featured 2414 30th in July. At the time I said the following: I would imagine this listing will generate a fair amount of interest. Once again, if they get the current asking price I don't think this is down too much from the peak.

Previous Purchase: 8/19/03 - $1,250,000

Listing History: 7/6/12 - $1,550,000

SOLD: 8/17/12 - $1,560,000

As much as I love being right and proving idiots wrong, I'm getting bored. The market is strong. Does anyone doubt that at this point? To be a "bear" at this point you have to be really out there. It is so obvious housing has turned. I think I'm going to just ignore the idea that there may be any real debate at this point. I think you CAN debate the shape of the future advance in prices. But the idea that some big decline is around the corner is asinine, as is the idea that we haven't seen a bottom.

Heavy Traffic *Update 1*

I last featured 2302 27th back in June. Here's a little of what I said last time:

I would expect this open house on Sunday to generate heavy traffic and interest. I would also expect nay sayers to be shocked that a crappy little box would command almost $1mm, but again, they don't get it...I think this one probably sells for over list.

Listing History: 6/7/12 - $899,000

SOLD: 8/9/12 - $960,000

I was right. 

Culver City -- Carlson Park On Fire

I last featured 4396 Motor back in May.

This 3/2 house is nice enough but not something to get overly excited about. The location however is great.

Purchase History:
5/1/07 - $869,000
6/28/11 - $799,000 (short sale)

Listing History: 5/9/12 - $859,000

SOLD: 8/7/12 - $870,000

I'm not sure how I feel about the short sale price from mid 2011. If I recall correctly, there were tenants in the house and it wasn't the most legit sale. But suppose you would like to disagree...Well in that case we have a situation where the price of this house rose by 8.9% in a little more than a year.

But more importantly, check out the 2007 price. The sale that just took place was HIGHER than the 2007 price. Wait, but what about the other blogs out there talking about the impending doom and weakness in the market? What we are seeing here is similar to what I recently showed on my last Santa Monica post. The quality properties in great locations are just barely down from the peak. The junk on top of freeways? Down by a good amount (as it should be).

The market here in my hood is very firm. Things are hot. Almost no inventory and when a quality new property hits the market it gets multiple bids quickly. Don't shoot the messenger. This is just what is actually happening on the ground.

The Market Is Very Firm

Address: 1034 24th - 90403

Details: 3 bed/2 bath 1,626 sq ft house on a 6,096 sq ft lot

Description: Warm and inviting describe this charming traditional home in one of the most desirable areas of Santa Monica. The many features of this wonderful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home include recessed lighting, plantation shutters and hardwood floors throughout. Newly renovated bathrooms, new efficiency windows, and new exterior paint. Spacious master suite with high ceilings and walk-in closet. Open kitchen with top of the line appliances including Sub Zero refrigerator, Viking stove, Asko dishwasher. French doors open to back patio offering privacy. Secluded and lushly landscaped yard and amazing garden with numerous fruit trees, roses, flowering orchid trees and Southern California succulents provide a peaceful retreat for outdoor dining and entertaining. Franklin School District.

Previous Purchase: 10/11/06 - $1,525,000

Listing History: 6/6/12 - $1,595,000

SOLD: 7/23/12 - $1,555,000

Reading through the description and looking at the photos shows that this is not an apples to apples situation with the 2006 sale. However, they don't appear to have done high end/major/expensive upgrades. So on an adjusted basis, I would say this sale is certainly lower than the 2006 level but not by a huge margin. This shows just how strong the market is in quality areas. Another dagger to the heart of the bear narrative.

There continues to be almost no inventory and rates are dirty low. If this keeps up and the economy were to pick up just a touch I would not be surprised to see prices up noticeably next spring.