I could post a bunch of updated graphs/analysis/etc, but surely you've seen enough and it's more than obvious that things keep getting better. The housing market bottomed long ago and everything looks good as fundamentals continue to improve. I can't recommend Calculated Risk enough as a great source for updated graphs and data on all things housing.
This blog is over five years old and I really see no point in maintaining it at this point. The battle is over. I'll keep checking e-mail once in a while but this is the last blog post. Adios.
Congrats, thanks for the blog, and go buy another house!!
ReplyDeletewhere should we go to discuss santa monica real estate now that you have shut down?
ReplyDeleteThe world was just fine before this blog (and others)...you will have to go back to chatting with your friends about real estate. But you'll realize quickly that nobody gives a shit about a few percentage points one way or another. Normal times indeed.
ReplyDeletethe subject of your very first post is now back on the market, at a $1MM premium
ReplyDeletehttp://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Monica/338-E-Rustic-Rd-90402/home/6840548
Thanks for all the great info over the years...its been a fun ride! Glad I have hung onto my 2 houses in Sm (it was touch and go there for a couple of years..).
ReplyDeleteEnjoy home ownership...it really is worth the sacrifices!
Your blog helped us an enormous amount with the biggest financial decision of our lives. You helped us decide when and where to buy -- an act of generosity that we deeply appreciate. Thank you so much for writing the blog.
ReplyDeleteAlways glad to hear this blog helped, thanks for the kind words.
ReplyDeleteIt seems really weird to throw in the towel at this point when we're seeing the same kind of panicked buying as in 2006. I saw a house a month ago that had 21 offers and was sold for all cash for nearly $100,000 over asking. Things are clearly still out of whack.
ReplyDeleteYou've got it all backwards. I've declared victory as you really can't be negative and also claim to be dealing with reality at this point. The bears are towel throwing. The few who still doubt this is the real deal are suffering from some sort of bubble/disaster myopia. It's been so long since things have been good that signs of life and a rising market are somehow seen as red flashing lights by some. Of course, those people are wrong as housing is and should continue to lead the economic recovery.
ReplyDeleteBut all the obvious indicators aside, let's look at it this way: What would make you change your mind? I think the bears have some kind of delusional vision of dirt cheap real estate in quality locations for everyone. It just isn't ever going to be that way. When will you guys admit you are wrong and change your views? You can't be negative on real estate forever and claim you are being realistic.
What "fundamentals" are you looking at that you think justify the current rapid increase in house prices?
DeleteThe housing market is being propped up by incredibly low interest rates created through government debt, FHA loans, and speculator money. As soon as the speculators head for greener pastures or the Fed turns off the spigot, housing prices will crash.
Correct, and when the "propping" stops, say in the year 2041, when the government, the entity with the LOWEST CARRYING COSTS in the history of the planet, finally throws in the towel, and stops propping things up, yes everything will crash - maybe all the way back to year 2022 prices (nominally far higher than they are today).
DeleteAnd when that happens, decrepit old geezers like Warchest & Myself (fat and happy in our long since paid off houses) will again turn bearish, and be so until the propping starts anew, when we turn bullish, once again.
Also, we will think back to that poor old bear, who was on the sidelines on March 14, 2013, and was STILL on the sidelines on March 14, 2041, and we will laugh and laugh and laugh at how miserable it was for the poor doomers who thought the propping was going to stop anytime soon.
Those who are delusional and super bearish at this point are no different than the real estate agents and bulls of 2005. I think it is reasonable to even say that the future is uncertain and thus excessively optimistic forecasts a bit suspect at this point, but to talk about housing prices crashing is as much of a joke as it was to talk about prices going up forever in 2005.
ReplyDeleteBut whatever, this is why I ended the blog. It's actually obnoxious to keep talking about how right you are so I'm going to shut up. Anyone paying attention doesn't need me to see that the economy and housing is picking up. My house is going to be paid off by the time the cycle comes back around and we see another meaningful decline.
>>"but to talk about housing prices crashing is as much of a joke as it was to talk about prices going up forever in 2005."
DeleteThe only people buying are cash investors, and the only way they'll keep buying is if ... prices keep going up forever.
You forgot to mention that no one is actually selling. Supply and demand. More buyers than sellers means prices will rise.
DeleteDid you sell this blog to a real estate agent?
ReplyDeleteNo but I would probably be willing to. As the agents would say "submit!"
ReplyDeletePermabears, you gotta love 'em!
ReplyDeleteAn appropriate final post to a long-entertaining and informative blog on SaMo housing. A very appropriate sunset, which for everything must come. Best to you, and Thanks!
ReplyDelete